Famous Internet Skiers &#187; Weather

SYNOPSIS:

A very refreshing weekend is on tap for much of the north country.
A front pushes south through the region today, setting off a few showers and thunderstorms will usher in change in the weather.
Behind the front a cool high looks to build into the region. Starting on friday, this high pressure system will bring generally sunny skies and slightly below seasonal norm temps to the region. On saturday, more sun and cool temps will make you yearn for the days of fall. The high will degrade a bit on Sunday and bring a cool and showery day to much of the north east.
The big news this weekend however will be the temps friday and saturday night. With clear skies and dry, cool high pressure in place there exists the potential for some of the cooler locales (I’m looking at you KSLK) to dip down into the 30s overnight. OH GOD DOES THAT SOUND GOOD.

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FRIDAY:

Primary Concerns: Lingering clouds with a ceiling of only 3k as the high builds in above.

Best Location: North. Still might be a bit warm in southern portions (PA and so. NY state)

Best Activity: ANY. Going to be a great day to be outside.

Recreational Forecast:

In the wake of the frontal boundary, a high pressure will build in on friday. With it will come low dew points, clearing skies with a few patchy clouds and temps in the low 70s. Really that’s it. That’s the forecast. Can you ask for more? Heck no. Go outside.

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SATURDAY:

Primary Concern: Being COLD in the morning!

Best Areas: Anywhere. Frontal boundary should be well south of the region. Only a few shore points might have to deal with clouds.

Best Activity: A fun one.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

First and foremost saturday has the potential to dawn cool. the Latest GFS MOS (MAV) and NAM MOS (MAV) guidance has Mt. Wash. and SLK dipping into the 30′s friday night and Btv dipping into the low 50s. If we get sustained clear skies, the light winds and relatively low moisture in the air will make this VERY possible.
Awesome. (Of course Sam and Allen prob. aren’t that excited. This would not be news to them.)

Aside from some light fog/dew/mist possible in the early morning of saturday that might take a moment to burn off, saturday will be perhaps the best day of the summer so far. Temps will be in the low 70s. The sun will be out and dew points will be fall like. So go outside. Again.

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SUNDAY:

Primary Concern: Showers becoming widespread in the afternoon.

Best Areas: East.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

Sunday will start out similarly cool. The same combination of high pressure, clear night sky and humidity should allow temps to fall sharply again Sunday morning.

While they will rebound in the morning, an approaching system and the degrading high pressure will work to make Sunday less awesome than saturday. As a system moves in from the west, it should bring some clouds and showers in the afternoon. While clouds may overspread the region my midday I think the showers hold off until later in the afternoon. Further east, you may escape scott free. I’ll monitor this and update you. Hard to get a handle on these weak systems in the summer.

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Extended outlook
Showery but not bad Monday and Tuesday. Really depends on how the front from Sunday plays out.

(UPDATED) Summer Series: Weekend of July 23-25

Lionel Hutz — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 16:09:16 +0000

Well that was wild. Yesterday I wrote the greens were under the gun for some severe storms- and boy did some pop up. If you look at the SPC severe weather reports from yesterday you get a sense of just how darn active yesterday was:

There was hail, winds in excess of 70 miles per hour and several severe thunderstorms with Doppler indicated rotation. Nasty all over. While we talk about the dangers of cold and winter weather, nothing is more dangerous to the outdoor enthusiast than a severe thunderstorm and its powerful cloud to ground lightning. They are not to be taken lightly. I’ve been caught out during one and would not wish to repeat the experience! Gotta be careful and heed these warnings.

As for the coming weekend, I don’t see a repeat of yesterday despite there being the chance for another round of t-storms.

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SYNOPSIS:

Overall the weekend will bring a mixed bag of summer weather. Friday will start nice with a warm front pushing in from the sw throughout the day. This will bring a chance for scattered t-storms and showers later in the day along with an increase in temps and humidity. As we move into Saturday, a system will be working along the St. Lawrence valley. This will bring another chance of storms to the north country although the primary concern will be from the trailing cold front attached to the system. This front should cross the region Saturday night into Sunday. As it does it has the chance to set off some wet storms. The timing should preclude severe weather but with high p-wats I could see the system spitting out some heavy rain. This should all clear by sunday am for the most part. As Sunday wears on a noticeable change should be pretty clear as temps drop with drying winds from the nw.

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FRIDAY:
Friday will be a day of transition. Friday will start out pleasant but as a system works out of the great lakes it will push a warm front in from the SW. This will warm the airmass and increase dewpoints. As the front moves in from the SW it will also bring with it a chance for showers and a few (unlikely severe) t-storms.

UPDATE

Precip shield from front is a little faster and more robust than previously modeled. Looks like ADKs and catskills will some more widespread shower activity this morning.
END OF UPDATE

Primary Concerns:
Stray t-storm in the afternoon and a greater shower coverage from the warm front.

Best Location:
The northern greens look good as do the whites. The chance for t-storms/showers should hold off until later in the day – say until 2 or 3 pm and the pops are lower after that anyway.

Best Activity:
With the recent heavy rains a whitewater kayak might be possible. Other than that all are pretty much equal.

Recreational Forecast:

By Friday morning weak high pressure will be over the NY, Mass, VT and NH.

This high is associated with some nice dry air

However, as the front pushes in the dewpoints will rise by the afternoon

South of that, a large bubble of high pressure will be building. This will be filled with some hot air.

However, I don’t think that heat will make it all the way into the north country. Temps should remain in the 70s and low 80s.

Now the real issue for the day is how far that front gets. HPC slows the front down so that it doesn’t really push into the north country until later in the day. Other models are more progressive and bring the front all the way up into the ADK by mid afternoon. Regardless, the lifting front will set off some scattered showers. The chance for a t-storm is minimal the further north you get. Best chances for a t-storm are in the Catskills and specifically the western catskills. Regardless, I’d expect to see some showers from the Catskills north through the ADK and Greens at some point Friday afternoon. It just makes sense.

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SATURDAY:
Saturday will be a moist day. To the south temps and humidity will combine to make it feel hot. This of course isn’t a surprise because it’s been hot all summer. Towards the north, the low pressure working its way across the St. Lawrence valley will push a cold front into the region in the late evening and afternoon.

Primary Concern:
Stagnant moisture around old warm front creating gross wet clouds. Esp. in the mountains. These systems have a way of just getting all caught up and creating a wet blanket that hangs around. It’s always a concern with set ups like this. If so to day could feel much wetter than it actually is.
Second issue is convection from approaching cold front Saturday afternoon. Again while severe weather looks limited, with high pwat values a quick 1-2 inches of rain is possible.

Best Areas:
While the heat will be something to contend with, areas to the south might have the best chance of staying sunny and dry throughout the day.

Best Activity:
Really mixed on this. There isn’t one activity to avoid but there also isn’t really one particularly good activity.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

By Sat. morning the warm front will have pushed well north and a low pressure system will be moving along the St. Lawrence.

To the south, a large ridge of hot air will be wilting the midatlantic.

As the system over Canada works to the east, it will skirt the border and push a cold front into the region. This front looks to arrive sometime later in day. I’d suspect sometime between 6pm and midnight based on the guidance I see right now.
Ahead of the front temps will be above average with relatively sticky humidity levels. If the sun pokes out you might see some decrease in RH. If it doesn’t however the day could feel really moist.
Once the front does arrive it should set off a round of rather heavy rain showers.

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SUNDAY:
Sunday will be another transition day. The front should work through the region throughout the morning and may even be off the coast by daybreak. Behind the front a nice high pressure system will build in.
Timing is screwy right now because there are a number of low pressure centers that the models have all hooked the front too. Regardless I think the pattern for Sunday is pretty clear even if the hour-by hour isn’t.

Primary Concern:
Lingering showers from Saturday’s cold front and delayed clearing.

Best Areas:
If the timing works out the Adirondacks and Northern Greens could be sweet. They could see clear afternoon skis with seasonable to below average temps and crisp air.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

By Sunday am, the front will be on the move to the east. This will act to clear out some the damp and warm air that plagued the region on Saturday. Building high pressure and winds from the NW will work to dry the region out and bring temps back to seasonable norms. A below average reading is even possible. In certain places we might not even hit the 70s. (Sounds nice doesn’t it).

While clouds may take a while to clear out, by the afternoon sun will work into the Adirondacks, Greens with some rays poking out into NH, So. VT and the Catskills.

What’s most remarkable however is that Sunday night, if the skis clear just right the above areas might actually see the first “cool” night in a long time. Right now a good deal of guidance is suggesting temps will fall into the very low 50′s at night. Now maybe it’s my thin blood but that’s cool for me and sounds very appealing given that Philly has had about 9,000,000 days over 90 degrees this summer.

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Extended outlook
Monday should be a really nice day. Seasonable high pressure will make for a splendid day that carries into Tuesday.

Severe Weather Warning: North Country under the gun

Lionel Hutz — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 17:22:27 +0000

Going to make this short and sweet: Be careful. A broad upper trough of cooler air is moving through the North Country today. Along with surface heating and relatively high dewpoints this will combine to set the table for some serious thunderstorms. Supercell development is very possible.
SPC (the storm prediction center and the best t-storm forecasters in the world) place the north country- ADKS and Greens in the “moderate risk” category for severe weather (hail,high winds and tornados). This is substantial for our area. With the production of what is likely a tornado in Malone, NY (right now unconfirmed but Tornado warning is in effect) the atmosphere is showing it’s teeth. More is highly posssible and we have to take the NWS risk seriously.

Watch the radar and stay safe.

Updated: Summer Series: Weekend of July 16-18th

Lionel Hutz — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 17:39:00 +0000

Well we’re back again for another round weekend weather! Last weekend I hope you all found some time to get outside. Personally I spent a great weekend high in the Adirondacks discovering new slides to ski (new to me), swimming holes to dip in (with natural whirlpool) and elevator shaft trails to hike. Now if every weekend were like that….

Sadly, they aren’t!

On that note I better get right to it. I’m going to have to keep this forecast short and to the point because real job is barking at fun job. (Yuck!). Sorry!

Overall the pattern for the weekend appears typically summery.

Friday will start out warm with humidity building during the day. Similar to last Friday, a front will push in from the NW. CAPE values in the 1000 to 3000 k/j range ahead of the front and favorable LI values suggest a few severe t-storms could break out in the afternoon as the front moves east. While I don’t see a lot of severe weather, with the dew points ahead of the system and this being July and all, you really have to pay attention. Any T-storms that do develop have the potential to put down 1-2 inches of water very quickly and produce hail. So from about 2pm on you should have an ear and/or to the sky. As for sky cover I think the higher terrain will get socked in rather early in the day as the moisture and approaching system hit the peaks first.

UPDATE

Again, sorry for not having to time to put up pretty pictures but sometimess you gotta just make sure you keep getting that paper. You know how it is….anyway…just wanted to make a note that if you are planning on heading out into the North Country today, be aware that the storms rolling in later are rolling in wet. 1-2 inches as I said before is well within reason and a little more widspread than previously indicated. Severe weather is down but water is up. A fair trade I suppose.

Behind the front, Saturday looks nice. As the upper trough swings through a few extra clouds and a stray shower could be possible in the North Country as the uplift from the mountains provides that extra oomph. A tight pressure gradient behind the front could also bring some gusty winds to the area Saturday morning.
For the most part however the day should be nice and trending to better as the afternoon progresses.

Sunday looks like the best day of the weekend with a small ridge of high pressure over the Northeast. Scattered clouds with mountain effect puff balls should allow for plenty of sun. Low humidity and seasonable temps will combine for a nice summery feeling. A great day to get outside.

Beyond Sunday, a very interesting weather scenario is shaping up. A strong system will work its way across the upper lakes. As this system approaches the North Country it could bring with some very severe weather. I’ll have some time to look at this tomorrow and so I’ll update then.

Have fun!

Again- sorry for keeping this so short. If you want more details PLEASE email me. I’ll respond as much as I can! If I have to put up all the pretty pictures tonight or tomorrow I’ll do that as well.

Summer Series: Weekend of July 8-11

Lionel Hutz — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 17:43:46 +0000

It’s been hot. Record hot. In fact the last time it was this hot in July, was 1988. So of course being a winter obsessed I wanted to see what the winter of 1988-89 was like. Starting with the Mt. Manny snow depth we see that it featured generally above average snow depths:

Looking at some teleconnection numbers, however, it seems that winter wasn’t particularly harsh:
AO for Jan 1989-March 1989: 3.106, 3.279 1.530
NAO for Jan 1989- March 1989: 1.17 2.00 1.85

Now without getting crazy and throwing around more numbers (as I’m prone to do), the best I can say is that there is little correlation between a record heat wave and the following winter. There is much better correlations between the number of 90+ degree days and the following winter, but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. On to the weekend!

Jump to:

SYNOPSIS:

Relief is on the way. However it will come with some rain and the potential for very heavy downpours later Friday afternoon into Sat. Following, Sunday looks to clear in much of the north country with a weak wave developing along the coast and impacting south-eastern VT/NH/Conn/Mass and parts of ME.

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FRIDAY:
Friday will be a day that begins like the previous five and ends with the wheels of change in full movement. The deep and stale ridge that has pumped record breaking heat, junky air and now moisture into the NE will begin to break down. As it does and slides east a front will push in from the west. Given high pwat values and the sluggish nature of the front isolated to scattered heavy downpours will be possible later Friday afternoon into the night from the front’s passage.

Shear profiles and CAPE signatures however suggest that the convective potential is minimal and any thunderstorms that do develop should be fairly weak and isolated. Timing the font is tricky. Some guidance wants to bring some pre-frontal precip into the area around 2pm while a large suite of models hold off the precip until at least 5pm. I’ll go into detail further down but I’m inclined to go with the 5pm time frame.

Primary Concerns: Heavy downpours resulting in isolated flash flooding.
Looking at the most current flash flood guidance:

we see that for the most part the NE has been pretty dry and only fairly extreme 3 hour rainfalls would trigger flash flooding. However, with Pwat (that’s precipitable water…I know were getting a glossary) values fairly high:

and weak wind fields the potential for some flash flooding can’t be ignored if small series of heavy downpours trains in one area.

While I think flash flooding is less of a problem than wet rocks, a heavy downpour can make small streams impassable or at the very least, turn them into ankle breakers. So if you head out Friday- and by all means its worth doing if you are prepared-pick a good route that doesn’t require crossing moderate streams late in the day. No need to be stuck out there or hike three miles back to a bridge if you can plan ahead!
Of course as for you kayakers out there…you might want to follow the radar and maybe get a late evening ride in wherever the heaviest precip sets up.

Best Location:
Given the timing of the front I think all the major outdoor destinations will be fine for the most part on Friday. However, if you want to avoid having to pack a rain shell and pay attention to the skies, head east. Eastern VT, and NH should stay dry for most of the (NEW LIONEL TERM ALERT!!!!) “outdoor hours” (you know 7am till 5pm) on Friday.

Best Activity:
Again, all summer sports are in play for much of the day Friday. Personally I’m going hiking. Climbing would be nice, swimming dandy and boating equally fun. Just watch the skies starting around 2pm and make smart choices. A good day with a wet finish is still better than sitting around doing work. (Yea yea…I can hear you now Ms. Hutz…there I go doing it again…well whatever!)

Recreational Forecast:

Friday will begin with the stale ridge still in place. However it will break down over the daylight hours on Friday. Before it does however, it will send temps above normal for another day.
However because of the position of the high, temps should be a notch or two below what they have been.
I’m thinking based on the mean SREF numbers that we’re looking at low 80s for the mountains and mid/upper 80s for the valleys in the NE.

However, with rather high dew points it will feel about the same.

Now as the afternoon progresses, a front will work in from the west. The timing of this front is the trickiest element of the forecasting.
Looking at the models we see a general agreement that the front shouldn’t push into the north country until around 4pm or so on friday.

The 03z Ensemble suite, the 09 SREF, and one of the high res WRF models all hold the precip off until around 21z (5pm).

The other high res model is a little earlier and more widespread with the onset of precip:

Based on this summer, this model is way overdone with precip amounts and is prob. simply indicating the presence of building clouds in the moist atmosphere.

Given the approaching front, and moist warm airmass you have to consider the potential for t-storms.
Looking at the Sufrace CAPE forecasts:

and the Lifted Index

it seems possible that some convection should flare up. However the shear profiles don’t really support the development of super cells. At best I’d put the chance for an isolated mild T-storm at around 30% late Friday afternoon. A downpour is much more likely.

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SATURDAY:
Saturday will be a day of transition as the front sags along towards the coast.

Primary Concern:
Lingering showers behind it and continuing showers across S. VT and NH as the front stalls and a weak wave of low pressure moves up the coast.

Best Areas:
Northwestern portions of the area have the best chance of seeing some nice clearing behind the front.

Best Activity:
Whitewater could be up early in the AM so that could be a change after the dry summer we’ve had. By the afternoon when it clears, just about everything should be good. Maybe stay off the trails and letting them dry out a bit would be nice, but with how baked they are, much of the water will run right off anyway.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

By Saturday morning, the front will be draped across southern NY state, Conn, So. VT, Mass and NH.
With the front will come relief. Temps behind the front will only reach into the 70s.

The air will be moist however so don’t expect a crsip day.

As the front is to the S/E most of the precip associated with the front should remain there as well.

Now here is where it gets annoying. The GFS and the NAM both want to develop a low pressure wave along this frontal boundary. However they diverge regarding the timing.

The NAM holds it off until Sunday:

while the GFS start getting it together on Saturday afternoon:

The GFS then wraps it up tight as winter nor’easter and tracks it up into New England into Sunday, bringing rain on Sunday to NH, ME and parts of eastern VT. The Nam keeps it more open and simply forecasts some enhanced precip along the frontal boundary in the above areas.

Regardless, by Saturday afternoon, the ADK, Catskills and NW VT should see some legit clearing of the skies.

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SUNDAY:
Sunday should nice for much of the region as the frontal boundary and Low pressure wave push off to the east and temps hover in the seasonal realm.

Primary Concern:
Enhanced precip from the low pressure wave extending futher than anticpated.

Best Areas:
The ADK and NW VT. These areas should be well enough behind the front to miss out on the precip associated from the low.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

By sunday morning the front should be draped across the eastern edge of the NE. A weak low pressure wave will ride along it and bring some enhanced precip to New England.
Here we see the mean position of the impulse by sunday am. X marks the spot!

To the west, the skies should be clear and a nice day (potentially the best of the weekend) should be unfolding.
Temps will hover in the 70s and low 80s.

and dew points will be noticeably lower:

I’ll try to update Sunday w/r/t that low pressure wave but I’ll be in the woods. At best check our radar and email me for updates!

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Extended outlook
Monday and Tuesday look to have a ridge build back into the region. However it will not have the heat pump effect of the last one. Temps will be slightly above norm and skies should be clear.

Weekend Outlook: 4th of July

Lionel Hutz — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 15:56:52 +0000

Today marks my one year anniversary of being a Famous Internet Skier. 365 days ago G invited me to join his motley crew and blog about the weather. Personally, I was honored. G, Sam and Allen had earned my respect with their kick-ass skiing and stellar TR’s on T G R I saw them as the skiers I wanted to be. (Mainly one with time to SKI!). Now, being the type that plunges into things headfirst on a whim I of course joined up having no idea where it would lead. Well things could not have worked out better. I love writing weather reports. Nothing is more fun than tracking a storm and watching it explode, all the while directing these guys to the best and deepest snow. When it all comes together it’s FKNA fantastic. Hopefully, you all have enjoyed it as much as I have.
Looking forward to next year, we have some great improvements in the works for the weather page that will seriously rock for skiers. Hopefully we’ll be able to present you all the products you should be using in one convenient place. Combined with my forecasts, the new tools we’re going to post up will ensure you don’t get skunked on any storms. Plus we’re developing an interactive feature that will allow you communicate directly with our site and stream your boots on the ground observations right to my forecasts. (Look for that in the winter). Exciting!
But before all of that we have some fine summer weather to talk about.

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SYNOPSIS:

For the official start to summer the weather couldn’t be better across the Northeast. From Friday through Monday the entire north east should see a large amount of sun. Temps will be just fantastic to start out the weekend and slowly rise into Sunday. By Monday, the heat will be in full effect. With only the slightest chance for a brief shower and some clouds early Saturday morning across the northern portions of VT, NY, NH and ME, this weekend looks like a great one to get outside.

However there is one serious note of caution. This is the 4th of July and that means lots of fireworks going off. With the nice weather, everybody will want to shoot some colorful bombs off. And why not. We beat the British to earn that right! However this has been the hottest June on record for many parts of the Northeast. Coupled with relatively dry weather and a very dry spring this has left many areas with below average soil moisture.

So my biggest concern is somebody’s fireworks setting off some conflagration in the woods. Seriously. It’s been pretty dry so be careful. Extinguish those sparklers, and try not to burn the damn woods down. That would just suck.

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FRIDAY:
The string of great Fridays continues. What are we at 4? 5 in a row? Wow. Nothing like ending the crappy work week with a sun drenched long summer evening right? Nothing kicks the sound of your dumb boss out of your head like a cold beer as the sun sets on a summer Friday night as the fireflies buzz about your yard. (On in my case the 18 foot high rafters of my apartment while I try to fall asleep).

Primary Concerns:
Sun burn and crowds. Look, it sunny and its early July. the UV index will be high. 8-10+. If you are on the water wear some sun block. Try a hat. Sunburn sucks.
As for crowds..save the planet a little bit and try not to get stuck in traffic.

Best Location: Anywhere. It will be a great day across the entire Northeast.

Best Activity: The full spectrum of adventures are there for the taking. Pick one and go.

Recreational Forecast:

On Friday, a ridge will be building out to our west.

Upper level winds will flow from the NW down around this ridge. Since the source region for this flow will be central Canada, temps and humidity will hover just around, and if not below seasonal norms.
Highs to about the Catskills will reach into the very low 80s with the ADK, Greens, and NH mountains only reaching the mid to low 70s.

With the NW flow, dew points will be stunningly low for July.

Amazing, RH values will also be low.

With clear skies,

light winds,

and no chance of rain

Friday will be another FINE day to get outside and kick off the long weekend.

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SATURDAY:
With a very weak disturbance moving just north/right along of the Can. border the weekends only chance of clouds/rain will present itself. This is a very weak and small disturbance that should only affect the north country. And even then it is a “barely” affect kinda thing. At the very most the early hours of sat. could see some wet clouds in the mountains. By the afternoon they should be gone as the sun reasserts its power.

Primary Concern: Sprinkles out of wet clouds- esp. in the greens- from disturbance along NW flow early in the morning.

Best Areas:
Again- all of nature’s playgrounds will be open for business.

Best Activity: One that’s fun.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

Saturday will mark the turning point between nice easy summer weather and, “dude- it’s hot” summer weather. For most of the day, Saturday the big ridge will remain just to the west, allowing the cooler and drier NW flow to remain.

You’ll note that southern areas have the ridge and associated high just beginning to really affect the region around the PA/NY border by the afternoon. This makes sense. The NW flow should hold on a little longer in the high country with warming in the Catskills and south starting later sat. afternoon based on the current location of the ridge, and the predicted direction of movement.

While it will edge close enough to bump temps up a notch or so, the .
Saturday should still feel very comfortable.
Here we see the predicted temps staying in the 80′s to the south to the upper 70′s to the north.

With the NW flows’ effects still being felt, dew points and Rh values should be pretty low.
Dwpts:

Skies should be fairly clear as well for much of the day across the NE. As I said before a weak disturbance will move through however and this should create some patchy clouds that move across the region during the day.
Here you can see the predicted pockets of broken clouds early Saturday afternoon. They are hanging just around VT/NH/SE ME.

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SUNDAY:
A building ridge will begin to greatly affect the temperatures across the northeast on Sunday. Sat’s 70′s and lower 80′s will be replaced with mid 80′s and low 90s. Humidity will rise. Sweat will begin to drip again.

Primary Concern:
Heat and sun. Plus fires from fireworks as per above.

Best Areas:
North and elevated. Sunday should remain highly bearable in the northern mountains where the heat will not really build in until later in the day into Monday. The beach is another option. You know- because there’s an ocean to play in.
Your grill would be yet another choice.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

By Sunday morning the ridge will have reached us.

Cutting off the nice NW flow and bringing in some hot air on a s/sw flow.

Combined with some strong sun, Sunday will feel much warmer than Saturday and summer will slap you in the face by the afternoon.
Heat index values will be 90 and and above for much of the NE. ( Think the below map is underdone a bit as well.)

As the high res data is just coming on on these temps I’m going to truncate sunday’s talk here. The potential heat needs watching and will require an update tomorrow or early saturday. Just be aware that it will start to feel much warmer on sunday and stay that way right into monday!

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Extended outlook
You gonna sweat on Monday. The high will be over us and the sun will be rockin. Cities as far north as Burlington will simmer with temps in the low 90s. Further south, afternoon highs in the upper 90s will be common with a few places pushing the 97+ “OMG its way to hot to do anything but sweat” barrier.
Just a quick peek at the heat index numbers ( based on older and colder numbers) for Monday gives you an idea what we are going to be in store for!

The updated data is showing WARMER temps. This is going to bear watching and will require updating.

(Updated 6/26) Weekend Outlook for June 25-27

Lionel Hutz — Sat, 26 Jun 2010 17:31:33 +0000

Ever have one of those days where everything just stops? I’m not talking about the “time stopped at the peak of this mountain while I watched the sun rise” way. More along the lings of “oh my god it’s only 11 am?” sort of way. If you have you know my today. Even Sam’s awesome adventure didn’t do the trick or Porter’s first excursion since this. Perhaps the weather will.

Jump to:

SYNOPSIS:

Similar to the last few weekends, Friday will be a gem across the entire northeast. Thursday’s cold front will clear out the humidity and bring a cool NW flow to much of the NE. Only in the far southern portions will the temps still hover in the upper 80s. The rest of the NE – from the Catskills north will bask under sunny skies with temps in the upper sixties and mid seventies. Following that, Sat will dawn clear with building clouds. A front will scrape the northern portions of the area and aside from building clouds, set off a few showers or thunderstorms. While the total rainfall amts look light the chance for a soaking shower is present to be aware.
Clearing by Sunday, the front should only leave broken clouds in its wake. With a ridge beginning to build to the South temps will nose up on Sunday but I doubt they will break out of the 70s’ across much of the north country.

Jump to:

FRIDAY:
Another gem!

Primary Concerns: Sunburn. Again I’m serious. We’re at the peak of the sun’s power and with little cloud cover and low humidity the UV index will be set to “lobster” levels. So wear some sun block. Maybe a hat.

Best Location: Not in front of a computer monitor. Again: Go OUTSIDE. The weather will be great all across the NE.

Best Activity: Personally Friday night might be a great time for a long evening bike ride. The long daylight hours and the low humidity will make it feel just awesome along the roads of the Northeast. Maybe go out for a paddle. The water seems to be just crossing the “ice your marbles” levels and with light winds you could have a grand ole time.

Recreational Forecast:

By Friday morning, the today is fast approaching from the west will have cleared the area.

Behind the front, a vortex over Canada and building Plains ridge will force a WNW flow over the Northeast.

With Canada and the Great Lakes as a source region the air mass brought in on the NW flow will have a starkly different feel. With dewpoints in the 40′s and 50′s the air will feel bone dry.

Coupled with temps in the upper sixties to low 80s (far southern sections):

and sunny skies:

Friday will be a wonderful day to get outside.

Oh- one note: I think it could get a little gusty across the Whites. If you look at the 850mb winds below:

you’ll notice that the winds pick up from the Whites NE into Maine. Given the location of the vortex in Can. and the departing front, along with the ridge location in the plains, I could see some strong gusty winds along the MTW ridgelines. (What’s new right?). I wouldn’t rule out 30 mph+ gusts if this sets up right.

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SATURDAY:
Saturday will dawn clear with building clouds through the day as a weak front scrapes and bounces along the northern portions of the region. As a result a round of afternoon showers and weak T-storms can’t be ruled out from the Catskills north and east. Temps will stay cool- esp. if the cloud cover builds early.

Primary Concern:
I’d say my primary concern for Saturday is an afternoon t-storm set off by the passage of a front. At this time there is some waffling in the data regarding the likelihood and strength of any such storms so I’ll just be cautious and say watch the skies from the afternoon on.

Best Areas: There isn’t one area I think that will do “best” here. I’d maybe stay to the east- NH-so the threat of showers/tstorms holds off till much later in the day.

Best Activity:
With a cool morning and low humidity, along with still below average soil moisture:

I’d say a hike Saturday morning might be very nice.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

By Saturday morning, the nice ridge of weather will start to be bumped by a weak front pushing down from the NW.

As we move into the afternoon hours, the front will push into upstate NY and VT.

Along with increased clouds (thicker over the ADK and VT)

The front should set off a few showers across the region.
While there is a chance for T-storms, looking at the latest CAPE forecasts

doesn’t support the conclusion that these T-storms will be damaging or severe. That doesn’t mean there is no danger however- lightning is always a MAJOR hazard in the mountains and should always be taken really seriously. Severe T-Storm or not.

Beside the front, Sat. looks to be a nice day.
The approaching front will turn the winds to the SW

And accordingly. temps will rise into the 70′s and 80s (with a few pockets in the hills staying cooler – esp. if the cloud cover is on the thicker side).

However, surface dewpoints will stay low and thus keep it comfy.

All in all, don’t let the front get the better of you. Get out on sat. Esp. the am. Plus, there is some good data out there (with history to back it up) that this front just blows itself apart and only leads to an increase in clouds. I’ll update you regardless.

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SUNDAY:
UPDATE

Looks like sunday is going to be warmer than previously predicted. I think the ADK and greens will get up into the mid 70s and have partly sunny skies after the noon hour. Prior to that I think it will be mostly cloudy with a possible lingering shower.

South in the catskills I think it will get pretty warm. Upper 80s are possible in some valleys. Sun will predominate by the afternoon. Isolated convection is also possible but most of the dynamics look to hold off until the evening.

East in to NH we’ll see conditions similar to those in the NEK.

THe further south you go the warmer it will be. The Poconos will border on downright hot.

Now, while there is some chance for an isolated T-storm all over the NE in the afternoon, the real fireworks should and most likely will hold off until the night time. With the chance for a big boy growing as we move from sunday into monday.

OLDER
Sunday should be nice day in the wake of Saturday’s front. Though rather sharply split with regards to temps/dewpoints between the north and south.

Primary Concern:
Lingering clouds enhanced by by a warm front pushing north. Possible afternoon convection along the frontal boundary

Best Areas:
Given that a warm front will push in from the south, I think the best place to be will be up in the hills where the temps and dewpoints should remain more comfortable.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

By Sunday, the weak cold front will have exited the region stage east. Behind it, a warm front will begin to work north. Skies should be fairly high with broken clouds in the 4-5k range.

With the warm front pushing north temps will climb into the 80′s at least as far as the southern Greens and ADK. North of there, where the front doesn’t actually look to reach, temps should remain cooler- say the low 70′s.

Similarly dewpoints to the south of the warm front will be in the upper 60s. North they will be in the 50s. That’s a noticeable difference.

As for precip, the warm front looks pretty dry right now though some signs point to the potential for convection on its southern edge- like say the Catskills and Berks.

I’ve held off on model maps here because I think a lot has to be worked out for Sunday. I’ll update this tomorrow once we get some better data.

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