This morning’s GFS:

I kid you not. You can ask Greg. I’m freaked out.

Now dreaming is one thing but backing it up with statistics is another. And that is where this gets weird. Around that time the ensemble outlooks have a small dip in the NAO toward negative, with a positive PNA and negative AO. Combined that’s certainly supportive of a moderately strong East Coast storm. Will it come to pass? I don’t know. Nobody can tell if you’ll need the fat skis this far out. However, I do favor the period from 2/4 to 2/6 or so for east coast storminess. Beyond that numerical models show a sustained winter like pattern through the second week of February. Take note though- we’ve seen similar model solutions several times this year only to have rain events develop as northern stream storms intensify more deeply than forecasted, and move more warm air into the region turning light snow clippers into misty messy events.

Before this we’ll have another few inches tonight into tomorrow am as energy ejects westward. It’s possible some low elevation mixed precip occurs but above 2000 feet this will be all snow. All in all that will bring 4 days totals to almost a foot across much of the ADK and Greens. Which is frankly impossible if you buy the prevailing narrative that this winter is terrible. I’d be lying if I said I agreed with you. I said it in october, and I’ll say it now. This is an elevation dependent winter. We’ll get close to average at the stake while BTV and the base areas suffer. Sure we started below average but if you go back to Mid December it’s actually been a pretty steady winter pattern. While not featuring some of the block buster nor’easters of the last two years, we’ve seen several 3-5 days stretches of sustained snow showers adding up to 8-14 inches. Not good for the gapers to get stoked, but good for those willing to wait and put the time time in to get zee powz (I’m off to Austria soon so I gotta practice zee German). So really, stop sticking with the crowd and saying this winter sucks. Make the best of what you got and go get some powder as I think this pattern generally continues thru February. Albeit I do think we’ll see greater chances for larger storms during that period but overall I suspect confused elevation dependent waves of energy will be the norm.

Of course if the pows don’t come, the piste has been glorious this year. Don’t believe me? Just ask the young Alces alces who was out working on the stem christie with Greg.

Ok. I’m out. I gotta shower (In POW).

UPDATE: In looking at the latest long range model runs it looks like excitement for next week should be tempered. While there is still the chance for a storm in the 2/5-2/7 range as energy from the west moves into the east, it looks like a suppressed solution at this time. This bears watching but it looks like in it’s wake we’ll see a similar flat gradient pattern to what we’ve been in. GFS wants to now push the “winter” back another 5 days or so…which is a model trend nobody likes to see.

Follow the passage of a weak front, a moist zonal pacific moisture induced pattern will unfold next week. Looking a global models for the North Pacific it’s clear that a surge of warmer, wetter air will flow up and entrain into a steady westerly flow just off the Wash/Oregon coast. Waves of moisture and embedded shortwaves will ripple inland over the Cascades, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. As the flow fluctuates naturally north and south, moisture will move into the Northern Wasatch and Northern Sierras.

Taking at look at the time/height series for Jackson and Alta we see the pattern played out over their air colums.

Alta:

Notice the difference? Clearly we see sustained heavy upward vertial motion through a heavily saturated enviorment straight through the middle and end of next week at JH. Alta’s graph shows more burst like precip with off and on snowier periods.

I think this is fairly representative of the overall system described above and looks rather well modeled.
Overall we’ll likely be looking a many new feet of snow across the Northern Western mountains and 1-2 new feet across the Wasatch and Sierras. If I had time and a car to go find some deep powder, I’d look to Jackson Hole, Targhee, and anything in Idaho. At least that’s what it looks like now.

Let me add a little more timely data here. As of sunday morning it looks VERY wet out west.
Here is the precip total for the next week:

So this pattern is looking a little better for Utah that previously mentioned but still Idaho and Jackson look to get SPANKED.

Ok Act III. Upslope snow over next 12 hours will be the story of this storm. We’ve gotten between 5-8 inches of cumulative snow since Easy started with a few pockets of more. It has fallen in a creamy dense consistency and now it’s dumping snow up and down the Spine and on a strong 260 degree wind.
Digging closer we see tremendous upward motion between about 5pm and midnight.

With deep level saturation:

and decent snow growth temps through the layer of upward motion

We should see VERY solid snowfall rates between .5 and 1.5 inches an hour depending on the dendrite growth.

I think when all is said and done we will be well into that 6-12 range I originally forecasted and like I said below somebody is coming away with 18 total. This pattern tonight DEF has the possibiltiy of popping off and dropping an additional 8-12 of snow somewhere along the spine. AND if you want my suggestion as to where that might be…well I’d say somewhere between MRG/Bush/the Midd. Snow Bowl / Kmart. Seriously…it’s running that way for sure.

Friday Jan 13th, 9:30AM update
So Here comes Acts II and III of Easy.

Right now a strong low has developed with it’s surface center just off the NY border north of Watertown. Here is the 850mb meso analysis of the system.

It will track northeast across the border over the next 10-12 horus. As it does it will push a strong cold front through the region ( Marked in yellow) Strong southerly winds out ahead of it in VT and NH are keeping mid level temps just a notch above freezing. (Red arrows to east of yellow).
To the west of the front strong winds from the west are whooshing in a lot of cold air and entraining significant moisture. Noted in the red streamlines in western NY there is also a large degree of convergence behind the front from these winds. That will grealy aid in uplift and convective precip.

Overall once that front pushes through we’ll see snow and falling temps. Heaviest snows are going to be in the ADK, and Greens from KMart to MRG. Stowe/Jay might get shadowed a touch from this pattern.
As the winds really stay westerly…the upslope machine kicks in around 10pm tonight with possible a very heavy period of like 2 inches per hour snowfall rates.

Overall I’m going with 3-8 inches additional today.

Jan 12th 12:45PM update:

Storm has started to bring rather steady snows to the Greens over the last few hours. Waiting on reports from the ADK. So far looks like as expected the WAA on the east of the storm has brought a solid 3-5 inches in southern sections of VT and Mass and it’s still snowing. Storm isn’t that well organized and starting to merge into one large low blob. Which is ok. looks like the 12z suite of high res models is handling this well.

Speaking of, I’m now tuning into that period from Friday thru saturday morning. Looks like we’ll see .75 to 1.25 inches or water from Friday morning through Saturday morning along the ADK and Green spine.

and

Certainly some of this will fall as mixed precip (sleet, ice and drizzle) over the day on friday. However, as I’ve discussed below much of this will fall as snow during the later hours of friday and early saturday morning.

Jan 12th 9:38AM update: So this is where we currently stand:

you can clearly see the double low structure that I referenced in the write up below.

Because I don’t have a ton of time I will lay out how this plays out based on the current data and model forecasts.

First today we’ll see that primary low track to the northeast. It will bring light snows to VT, and Northern NH. Heavier snows will fall in central NH and Maine.
Generally there will be a few inches along the ADK and greens – with more on the eastern slopes. Following that light snow, freezing drizzle and misty type precip will reign tonight thru tomorrow midday. Then, that second low – having deepened- will push through. This will be imo the real story and snow maker. The upslope signal is strong from friday night thru midday saturday. With dropping temps snow growth will be right side up so what falls will go from dense to very light by saturday.

Overall I’m still sticking with this being a total 6-12 type event for much of the mountains of the northeast. I made this comment privately and I’ll make it here. If you don’t get above 2500ft you will think this storm is a bust. It’s just going to be that way. Take your time, let it play out and don’t judge it by what falls on your car when it’s parked in the driveway.

ORIGINAL POST from January 10th:
Nope- no intro this time. (Well maybe a short one…if you read “Easy” and don’t think of “Easy Company” 506th Regiment, of the 101st airborne you have not scene the greatest Television series of all time and possibly the best depiction of American men on the Western Front during World War II: HBO’s 10 part epic Band of Brothers. There is little more to say than watch this now. I promise you it will be the best 10 hours you spend this year.)
Back to the weather:
Beginning on Thursday, and running through early Saturday, the North Country has the potential to see a heavy dose of Snow with some rain mixed in.

At its base level “Easy” is a storm complex formed by the interaction of two separate systems. First a moist storm moving out of the south (A) and a cold trough moving out of the northwest/Alberta (B).

Models wanted to merge- or phase- these two pieces a number of different ways of the past week. Slowly however it’s seemed a consensus has emerged. Generally it is agreed that by wednesday the southern low will be over Virginia and the northern energy will be developing a storm over the great lakes.

This is the moment it gets “interesting.”

Models have a very hard time with the complex interaction between lows and frankly so do forecasters. There are just a lot of moving parts and wind shifts/temperature changes. TO accurately predict what will happen tends to focus more on the “art” rather than the “science.”
Generally however it seems pretty clear that these storms will not totally phase but rather link in a rather unique way. (from the Euro)

Nor often when something like this happens one of the lows takes over as the primary low. Usually that’s the coastal low given how cyclones form. That however doesn’t seem like it’s going to happen. Rather all the major models want to skirt that primary low off to the east while still dragging the second low up into Canada.

- Of course as soon as I publish this the 12z NAM for 1/10/12 comes out and just decides it wants to make that primary low the story. According to the NAM the Greens and ADK a solid 8-10(+) of snow will fall on thursday, FOLLOWED by the passage of the second low with waves and impusles sparking snowfall through saturday. DO I buy this soluition totally…well not quite…read on…

With that said, I think the following plays out…
1) The primary (or southern low) tracks up into southern NY state. VT and the ADK seen WAA snows on the “front end” with a passage to some mixed precip and periods of heavier snow on Thursday.
2) As that primary low moves east, the lagging more vertically stacked “secondary” low- the northern low will slowly drag across the ADK/Greens Thursday night and Friday. While the models don’t throw a ton of moisture out, I think there is plenty to be had. Once the high res models come in line I’d not be shocked to see enough water to get us to a foot of snow. These lagging moist lows are just great for the greens.
3) A weak impulse may ride up a secondary front associated with this second low late Friday. That would spark additional snowfall in Vermont- esp. southern and central VT.
4) As the second low moves out into Maine, we’ll see a period of solid upslope snow from Friday to Saturday.

So what snowfalls are we looking at? Overall- when all is said and done I think it’s VERY possible somewhere along the Green Spine and ADK will be over a foot with the potential to get into the 18 inch range if that second low tracks a little south right over the spine. Otherwise I think this is a solid 5-10/6-12 type event
across much of the North Country (at elevation). Further south I think southern VT could fall in that 4-8 range. Interestingly a low level moist easterly flow at the outset may spike snowfall rates in the Whites putting MTW in that 6-12 range.
-Maine Bonus: On the advice of a wise friend, I’d like to add that the Sunday River/Sugarloaf region could get a real hammering as well. During the first lows life, a strong southeast flow off the ocean will develop and funnel moisture right into Maine. Should be cold enough for snow at both SR and the Loaf. The result will likely be a 8-16 inch snowfall event for them by friday afternoon.

Caveat Conclusion: This is a very complex event that models have not handled well at all and I think there are some assumptions that just might not play out. Am I totally confident this stays all snow? Nope. Not at all. Am I confident that Easy isn’t just another warm rain storm? Yes. We’re going to get snow out of this and somebody along the spine is going to get a fair (possibly VERY FAIR) amount.

I’ll keep you posted.

In all seriousness however I think winter DID show up. Or at least pulled is car into the driveway. With some indication that we’ll see teleconnections turn favorable for us in the medium range, and the generally positive pattern we’ve seen over the last 3 weeks, I think we might be in store or something resembling winter. Does that mean “EPIC NOR’EASTERS BRO!”? No. Likely not. Rather I think we’ll start to see seasonal temperatures with reasonable winter chances for snowfall.

Friday: As I write this a weak low is in the great lakes and pushing a warm front through the area. Warm Air Advection snows this morning brought a dusting to 2 or 3 inches across the mountains of the ADK Greens and Whites. Generally in the wake of the front, temps will be a about normal with highs in the 20s. We’ll see spotty snow showers on and off under cloudy skies. Winds will not be too much of a concern today.

Saturday: The primary weather story this weekend will be the passage of a weak clipper like system to our north. Starting tonight the low will skirt along the Canadian border and move east by Sunday am. On Saturday, the rather dry low will spark a few light snow and/or mix showers. The bigger story will be the winds ahead of the system. While not really impressive over the ADK and Greens (25-35), it’s possible that as the day progresses we’ll see sustained 50-60 over on MTW. Precip as noted will be generally light. Best chances for sustained elevation snow would be northern Greens as that is closest to the best dynamics and likely to remain cold enough.

Sunday: Once the low moves off to the east on Saturday night it will push a cold front through the region. Temps will fall back into the seasonable range (lows in the single digits and teens) sat night. A slightly moist and slightly lake moisture enhanced nw flow will also develop. The result will be sustained snow showers Sunday across the mountains. Again in these patterns the Green spine does the best because of spine is generally a uniform cross barrier to the prevailing flow. Overall by Sunday night it’s possible that a few spots along the spine (Jay Peak for example) get into the 4-6 range. The snow should be pretty fluffy and light as good snow growth temps abound. The other notable weather story Sunday will be the chance for some high winds – sustained 55-70 gusting above that on MTW. With new snow and two days of high winds be wary and use caution over there.

Looking Ahead: You are going to hear a lot of talk about some big system inbound late next week (Thursday). And while there is some truth this story -lets be reasonable. A few model runs ago, a wet low emerging from the south was progged to phase with a dry and cold shortwave dropping out of Canada. The resulting phased storm was modeled to phase at the right point so as to make the turn inside the benchmark. This is a recipe for some big-time fun. However, subsequent runs have backed off the phasing OR phased the system faster, resulting in a deep powerful low that tracks into the great lakes. I favor this warmer model solution right now but am on this event and will be updating here at FIS/weather.

The primary story over the Friday-Monday time frame will be the existance of a seasonable cold trough with a number of weak shortwave disturbances embedded in the flow. These “clipper” type storms will roll thorugh early friday and early saturday. Right now the friday wave looks weaker. Likely a 1-3/2-4 type snowfall thoughout all the ski world. (Could even reach pow clause levels depending on your plans). Word of note- as we saw a week ago, these clippers have the tendency to over perform. When they pass over the Great Lakes region, and run into the greens, models have a hard time accurately capturing the amount of moisture sucked up and then spit out into the Greens. So lets watch that one.

The Saturday storm looks a bit wetter. Models right now seem to track it south, leading to more coastal/maritime air interaction, subsequent deepening and therefore more moisture. Best guess right now is that the storm does deepen more than the friday wave but doesn’t get as defined as the NAM model shows. Personally I like a slow moving upper level low. Those produce a fair amount of mountain snow. The GFS has this look and I’ve sorta been privately on this idea for a while. Right now lets say this wave has the opportunity to produce 3-6 with pockets of 7/8 inches of snow from the Catskills and Berks well north through the ADK and VT.

-12/30 Update-
Ok so now these events are looking warmer. And honestly I’m surprised. I just find it hard to believe that this strong arctic high would just be undercut and bumped off by a weak low pressure system. However it looks like that will be the case. As a consequence the saturday storm will roll in as a mix of light mixed precip- snow, sleet and some freezing rain.
END UPDATE

After that, the models are hinting at a brief southwest flow induced warm up as a northern stream wave deepens over the lakes. This is a somewhat new model solution so it needs to be watched. Nevertheless it doesn’t seem to have much moisture with the warm air and it punches a robust cold front through early on monday. The front and cold air could spark some VERY impressive upslope snow from 1/2 (late) to 1/4 across the Greens. Model runs showing exactly what I want to see and I’m pretty stoked on the early january powder schuss possibilities- esp. with a reinforcing cold shot of air dropping the temps in the region of prime uplift into the -12 to -16c range. Well also def. going to see a high of five someplaces on tuesday/wed.

UPDATE at 1PM on JANUARY 1st 2012:
Well right now I’m pretty happy about what the next 48 hours are going to bring. As noted above, as a low pressure system moves across the north a strong cold front will push through. Some mixed precip and rain will be on the front end. By around midnight tonight temps will have fallen to below freezing and be about -8c at elevation. With the location of the low a southwest flow will develop. These patterns do a great job of sucking up lake moisture and streaming it into the ADK (like it often just shoots right at whiteface) and the Greens. Of course that’s good when combined with cold temps and orographic lift. Starting maybe 6-8 am tomorrow we should some great dendritic growth with the flakes. All up and down the ADK and Greens the system should run for at least the following 24 hours. Overall when the event winds down on tuesday night…or there abouts…I’m pretty certain somebody is getting 8+ of blower…or more if banding sets up.

Regardless, we do have a holiday weekend coming up, there IS a storm brewing, AND SCHUSS MUST BE HAD (unless like me, you are traveling south. Palm – Forehead).

So…
Tonight we’ll see low pressure amplify under the influence of a weak 500mb trough. The surface low will move up along a frontal boundary and skirt along the NJ coast and off the tip of L/I. By tomorrow morning the storm will have brought snows to the poconos, Catskills and Berkshires. With temp profiles not really conducive to fluffy snows, the relatively decent amount of moisture wrung out will likely only produce mild snowfalls. Generally I’d see 1-3 in lower areas with 2-5 widespread above 2000ft with MAYBE a pocket of 6-8 in the Berkshires.

Following in the wake of this storm, cool high pressure will build in (wow a novel pattern…not). Saturday will be generally clear and cool across the entire Northeast. A few snow showers could spark up along the green spine but generally we’ll see sunny conditions rule. Sunday looks like more of the same, though a weak system skirting to our north may spark some later in the day snow showers across the higher terrain.
UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE

So it now looks like as the shortwave moves to our north it will intensify, maybe pick up some lakes moisture and bring a little more than snow showers across the higher terrain of the ADK and VT. Right now, both the GFS and the NAM show a much stronger “clipper” storm. Given history I’d say that it’s certainly possible that this event will move from the 0-3 range into the 4-6 range across the higher terrain. So Monday am, might be a nice time to get out and make a schuss.
END UPDATE

On monday, as the high slides east, a return flow will start to set up leading to warmer temperatures and some snow showers maybe set off by the change in wind direction and lake moisture. After that, long term the GFS looks seasonal to slightly above average. The Euro looks confused and the Canadian model is still in jail after rioting in Vancouver.

UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE
Now it looks like all the major models want to phase some northen and southern energy and produce a storm around the 28th. Seems reasonable and pattern has been fairly consistent that this would be a good time for a storm. I’m thinking that the primary low will stay towards the south and the prime target area will be the southern ADK and Central VT on into NH right now. Just sorta what my gut and the models tell me. This clearly will change. But for now, be aware something is brewing for mid-next week.
END UPDATE

As it does it will turn winds from a southerly direction (bad) to a southwest/west and eventually NW direction. (good).

Here we are going through the morning from 6z to 9z to 12z.

Now what does that mean? Well it means we’ll see a cross barrier flow into the spine of the Greens with some low level lake enhanced moisture. (also good).

So looking at the specifics here we see that early friday morning- 6z through 14z (or about 1am to 9am) the factors look to be in play for an upslope snowfall along the Green spine.

We see decent airmass saturation from the ground to about 850/700mb in the period:

We see actually VERY nice omega values (represents upward motion in the atmosphere). We like to see big numbers around 900mb:

The only conern is the moderate temps. We’re just not going to get the best uplift and mositure in the prime snow-growth region. Ideally I’d like to see the max upward motion occur in a region of 85% RH or greater with temps between -10 and -15C. We’ll be warmer than that:

Now this doesn’t mean we will not get snow, it just means it will be a wetter and denser snow. Given the need for some base, that might not be a bad thing. All in all I’m looking forward to the first “magic” snow of the season. I’m reserving my totals estimate until the higher RES-WRF model comes into line with the event tonight.

In the meantime- in honor of my broken headlamp, and running in the dark along the SBTV rec path, here is some cool  FIS night work that I suggest you read.

You know, some people will tell you that you don’t hear the heavy chunk-chunk-chunk of the UH-60 Blackhawk rotors until you see the Delta troops fast roping down into your compund (which of course means you are offically fucked). Well lucky for us, we heard the rotors beating for our incoming Delta force over a week ago (twitter) (facebook). While it may only have been a faint whisper in the night back then, the rotor wash is hitting us in the face now and it’s time to get serious.

As I talked about here:
A deep 500mb trough is going to interact with a stalled front and spark surface cyclogenesis. As documented, this wave will move up along the front under the influence of the 500mb wave. As the low really deepens around Long Island/Conn. it will suck cooler air into the system on the west side, and maritime air from the east. Cool air + moisture is not complicated math. Certainly easier than that 3+3 = a meter computation or that weird high five math. Right. Exactly.

So where and when is Delta going to strike? Well the Delta looks to go guns “hot” sometime early thursday morning. At that time, enough cold air will have worked back into the system and the easterly maritime flow should be well established setting up…a turkey shoot for Delta’s big guns right at the Catskills, Berks, and Southern VT. Don’t believe me, well here:

Engage:

Pour it on:

Chase the runners down:

According to the GFS, Delta might even bring a motar team for a little extra fire power:

That’s a big round:

Walkin’ em back for the retreat:

Previously we talked about how maybe the R.O.E. wouldn’t really allow Delta to use all it’s weaponry. Maybe the L.Z. would even be a little too hot Delta would waste some ammo waiting for it to cool. And that’s still a concern, but looking increasingly LESS likely.

What IS looking possible and will ABSOLUTELY need to be watched is the chance to the LZ to move north.
See right now it looks like the models are verifying JUST south of where real time analysis shows the features are. So what may happen is that as this wave develops it will wrap up more north of where it’s currently modeled. Just looking at the real time conditions now, I’d say the models COULD be 30-50 miles south. Lets say that’s a 1/4 chance. Though the 12z Euro is east…hmmmm

So lets re-cap “Delta’s” mission objectives:
1. Deliver a tactical 8-16 inches of snow the the Eastern Catskills, Berkshires, Southern VT (up to about Rutland) and Souteastern NH.
2. Suppress the enemy around Mt. Washington with a similar 8-12 inches of snow.
3. Sweep the compund for evidence and leave 3-6 inches of snow in the southern ADK, and Central and Northern VT.
4. Kick Ass.

UPDATE:
While not as bad as Desert One this Delta strike didn’t really go as planned. Looks like a few factors including off shore convection and a more progressive flow aloft prevented the system from really wrapping up. This limited both the moisture and cold air available in the western region of the storm. As a result we likely (reports still need to come in) didn’t see the big totals down in the cats and berks. Maybe somebody still got in the 8-10 range but it’s going to be an isolated result and not indicative of the storm. I’d say sorry…but this is the weather and we know it changes at a moments notice. And hey I guess we learned a lesson, next time call the fuckin S.E.A.Ls.

And if you haven’t already, “stick your thumb up” at us on Facebook. That’s a good thing in Americuh.

But first, a few thoughts on the near term weather this week.
Currently there is a cold front off to the west. This will push through the region sometime tomorrow. Moisture out front will fall as rain. YAY! The front SHOULD stall somewhere to the south and east running through southern NY, Mass and NH. Following that, a weak wave of energy will ride along and bring some light snow showers to the higher terrain.
A second stronger wave looks to develop sometime Wednesday. This is the wave i’ve been hinting at for a while now on twitter and facebook. Last week this wave looked like it wanted to develop into nice little snow maker for us. Now it doesn’t look so good. Looks like it stays open and passes to the south and east. Only really bringing snows to Maine if that. However, I’d like to add that until we see where this front stalls and where this wave develops late Tuesday, further meaningful analysis should be withheld.

UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE:
With the front’s location and timing starting to get resolved the major weather models are displaying some really interesting and noteworthy solutions. As of today, tuesday here’s the basic set up.
Sometime a 500mb trough moving over the carolina piedmont will spark the development of a surface low. This low will ride up and as the trough becomes negatively tilted with height somewhere over NJ/NY the low will rapidly depen and begin to occlude.

Once the low develops the pattern will look like this (trying a new image editor…and I don’t like it…anyway)

So lets follow along. The black lines represent the position of the H5 trough first on wednesday when it’s deeply dug into the south and then more importantly, on thursday when it’s taken a negative around Delaware. (Editors note: I spent like a good 30 minutes figuring out the joke for “negative tilt” and “Delaware” and didn’t come up with anything but I know there is a Lolz in there). Anyway, the steep trough will spark a low to develop and ride along the frontal boundary…marked as a blue line.
By EARLY thursday morning the low will have reached the NY/Conn region and intensified sucking nice wet maritime air in from the ocean (green arrow) and pulling cold air in from the northwest (blue arrows). The result….is potentially heavy snow in the catskills, Berkshires and south NH. Again.

Here are two of the latest total water outputs:

and

That is excellent.
So what’s my take? Well I think the dead bullseye right now is the Berkshires where upwards of 1-2 feet of snow could fall. THere should be a similar strip of heavy snow extending back through the catskills and then on into southern NH. The caveat here is that THE THERMAL PROFILE HAS TO STAYS COLD ENOUGH. I know that’s a platitude but it’s true. Right now there is some doubt in my mind that the models are handling the temperature of this system properly. ITS very possible that much of this qpf falls as heavy mixed precip. The Albany NWS certainly has taken this approach and it has merit. I’m being hopeful and going with what Ullr has shown us he wants to do….not more than 6 weeks ago a storm with a similar track just dropped BOMBS on this region and I trust the past until proven otherwise.
North of that – in southern VT I think we could see 6-9 inches of snow with 3-5 north along the spine with Rutland being the dividing line between the 6-9 band to the south and the 3-5 totals to the north. However by the time we get all the way up to Route 2 don’t expect too much. At least that’s how it looks now.
Over in the NH we’ll see heavy snow in southern NH with the possibility for MT. Wash, if this pivots just a touch more to the NW to get into the 1-2 foot band easy.
Like much of Nor. VT, the ADK – and esp. the High Peaks – look to be hung out mostly dry for this event.

Beyond Delta, over the weekend we will likely get a shot of reinforcing cold air and possibly tap some great lakes moisture for an upslope event. But that’s a ways off and I need to address the REALLY long range first.

Looking LONG term, the forecast looks more wintery than it has in months. Currently the NAO, AO and PNA are all in just about the worst state for EC cold and snow. However, as show below, the ensemble forecasts for all three teleconnections show a return to a more neutral state. (red lines are individual forecasts of the ensemble system)

AO

NAO

PNA

So while I can’t say we’re going to pow-town or in store for any dy-no-mite events, a neutral state at this time of year at least comes with cold temps supportive of snow (natural or man-made).
All the major operational computer models are also showing run to run consistency depicting a more seasonal zonal pattern. At this point, I’ll take it. So there we have it. Lets see where it goes from here and remember: It could be a lot worse.

So here we go.
By late tuesday/early early wedneday morning, a cold high pressure system will slide just east, and flatten out as a storm gathers strength.
Previous model runs had this high either sitting right over the North Country and driving the storm to the south and east, or shrinking back up into Canada like little Mr. Costansza after a cold morning swim. Well no longer. The model consensus at this point is for the high to flatten and hold strong. This will drive the storm just to the south of the North Country. See the predicted track below.

As the storm deepens wednesday the cold air will hold strong across the higher terrain but barely. However the NAM explodes the storm midday wendesday.

This will allow midlevel cold air to hold strong as the deepening storm will induce greater inflow of cool air from the northeast. This will keep freezing levels across the ADK and Greens at about 2500 feet for the bulk of the event.

I’ve shown you the nam- and what’s important to note- the GFS and the Euro agree. The Euro REALLY agrees. Bulding:

and done built:

As the storm then wraps up, and swings out towards the NE, the classic backside upslope flow will linger into Wednesday night and thursday AM.

What does this add up to? Well first of all look at the pure water predicted:

That’s a wet storm. And truth be told, with the warm air movement and the resulting isentropic lift along with the storm’s track and moisture source I think those 12 hour water totals are reasonable. Wednesday could be a wet and wild day. I know…we don’t care about wet- we care about white. So how much? Well there is a reason I called labeled this Winter Storm Charlie. While this will be a heavy, wet snow, I strongly feel that the potential exists for the highest terrain and the northerly terrain to do very well. Above 3000 ft from KMart north to Stowe I think there is the potential for 6-12 inches of heavy snow to fall. In the ADK I think a similar 6-12 is reasonable with the chance for a pocket of more. Jay could be the winner here because of their northerly position and the potential for coldest temps so I’d maybe go 8-16 inches up high at Jay.

A few additional notes. 1) I’m def. concerned about this becoming a sleety mess. Model soundings flirt with the 0c line all the way north to almost 700hpa. So sleet is surely in play (along with of course straight bone chilling rain). 2) A few ensemble solutions take a much more southerly track. I’m leaning NAM here since the NAM really did well with Baker- the Halloween storm. But just be aware that a southerly solution is out there. 3) This doesn’t mean deep winter is upon us. This pattern still isn’t great.

Tuesday AM Update

Looks like the overnight models have converged on a more southerly solution. Heaviest precip looks to be trough central NY and Central to Southern VT. I circled that in black.

Now there is still ample moisture in the High Peaks (whiteface) and Northern Greens (Bush, MRG, Bolton and Stowe). Circled in yellow. Interestingly because of the temperature profile these areas – despite the differences in quantifiable liquid precip, could come out about equal on the rule test. I’m still comfortable with an overall 6-12 snowfall across the higher terrain. Jay looks less favorable than it did, the whites look a little better and central VT looks a little better. Were this to hold serve as modeled, Kmart’s summit along with the spine up to about the Bush would like be your best bet for finding a pocket of anomalous heavy snow.