Full TR forthcoming…

Check out my entry slideshow below

View on Vimeo.

The final slideshow presentations will be on Friday March 26th at 6pm at one of Stowe’s base lodges (TBA).

3/11/10 Update

So far this winter we’ve seen a very suppressed pattern. A huge amount of snowfall has been blocked from migrating north of the Mass Pike due to the overall weather pattern. While this sucked some powder out of ski season, it just might save large sections of the norht country a soaking.
As of this morning, it appears that the majority of the heaviest rain will fall south of the Mass pike, and the north country should see a relatively rain free day on saturday. Only later on sunday will any strong rain move into the area. This doesn’t mean that there will be perfect spring conditions- it just means you don’t need a canoe to get to the hill.

Of course, as the catskills are south of the mass pike (or even with it), they are not out of the woods. In fact, I still say if you live in a low lying area around the catskill watershed, be aware of the water levels. This storm has the potentital to flood streams and creeks very quickly as the combo of heavy rain and melting snow catches up with ice dams.

Older stuff

I’m going to keep this brief because it contains a lot of words none of you want to hear.

Beginning on Friday afternoon, a very wet and warm coastal storm will impact the Northeast. Models vary greatly on the location of the heaviest rain but all do agree that the Friday night to Sunday midday period could be very wet for significant portions of the NE.

Most notably, the Catskills are under the gun right now. With a deep, wet snow pack, the several inches of rain and highs in the 50s as forecasted by various models would disastrous. Flooding would be the norm with the potential for very damaging flooding possible. Another danger that much of the NE will face is wind damage. Moderate to high winds can be expected at times over the weekend. With the possibility of significant melting this will loosen up the soil and make it much easier for trees to come down.

Now, the best locations right now to avoid the worst of this poo-poo platter appears to the be ADK and Northern Greens where, if god cares one iota about your spring, the brunt of the system will stay to the SE and some cold air will work in to maybe change over this crap to some snow at higher elevations (like 3000+).

So yea…sorry to be the bearer of bad news but I gotta keep it real. Not going to be a great weekend on the slopes.

Long term I see some interesting signs that we may enter another blocking period towards the end of the month and on into arpil. While that time frame makes it tough to get good cold at lower elevations, it certainly can produce rather nice higher elevation snow events. So don’t get the swim trunks out just yet. (Plus you’re def. not ready for bathing suit season. I’ve seen some of you. Lay off the beer. Find some sun. Sheesh.)

Here is an interview with Brian, Gulmarg’s beloved snow safety director. He is quite a guy and has tackled the immense project of developing a snow safety plan for the huge ski resort while training a local ski patrol and maintaining a backcountry advisory.

Click the photo for more.

…detailing a triumverate of New England skiing and riding.

Was this a first descent? Probably not. This blog isn’t rad enough for FDs yet… but stay tuned just in case!

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YO! If you’re still reading this blog, the forbidden post has been posted! Check it out here.

The mustache pointed left and we followed. The mustache was right.

Thank you mustache. Thank you.

3/3/10 Update

Just a quick wrap up to throw some 5 day snow totals I think you all might want to check out:
Hunter, NY 72.5 The Ski center @ Hunter 84.5
E. Windham (Tower) 90″/Village 72″
E. Jewett 84″
Tannersville 60″

That my friends is why I told you the catskills would get nuked.

9 PM Update

Ok…so we’re still on track for every area with one (good) change.
I’m really beginning to think that from mid elevations up..say 2000ft and up… the greens, especially the southern greens are going to see a heavy wet snow tonight into tomorrow. ALB NWS first hinted at this but it now seems well supported by several model runs. The air column will cool sufficiently starting with pockets in Southern VT and in the White Mountains just has some heavy precip start rolling in. I think there will be a period from midnight tonight to maybe 7am tomorrow where these areas stand to pick up 8 inches or more in east facing slopes where orographic enhancement will take place.

So to review:
Catskills: Nuked with wet heavy snow
ADK: above 1500ft not bad at all. Another 6-8 overnight
Greens: Better than before. South better than north. East facing deeper than west facing.
Whites: Up high starting to look white.

3 PM Update

So far we’re on track with this storm. Freezing line looks to be between 1500 and 2000 feet west of I-87. LP is seeing snow and SLK is seeing a mixed bag of wet poop.

The Northern Greens are getting shadowed by the Whites.

So. Vt will see rain, heavy at times mixing in with periods of snow. The So. greens will see the best chance at top dressing from friday into sunday am along a cooler eastern flow. (Albany thinks this will be more than top dressing. Just went with a BALLSY call of 6-16 inches. Look I’m understand. There is a very deep tap of moist air thats going to flow smack into some hills. The east facing slopes will get snow. But that’s a ballsy call. I’d be more inclined to go with 6-10 but hey…go big or go home)

But the real magic is going to happen along the western Catskills. There is a cold front knocking on the backdoor right now. It’s like 24 in Buffalo. That cold air is going to meet a stream of atlantic moisture somewhere right over the edge of the catskills. This mositure is DEEP. It comes from Cuba, and according to my secret CIA sources it’s humid down there. So you know when that mosit wet air meets this dry cold air…BANG!. I suspect that Plattekill will be the target zone for this storm again as it is closest to this zone.

2/25/10 6:30 Update

Look how much I like you. I’m up early and making an update. Thank me later in microbrewery beer (or Miller lite- I like that too).

So here is the latest word on Selma.
Catskills are again under the gun. Big time. I’d expect to see another 14-24 inches of snow at higher elevations in the Catskills with Plattekill being in the best location to get snow at all times from this system. At times from this afternoon until Friday morning, there will be periods of very heavy snowfall with 2 inch an hour rates possible.

For the greens:
It’s not going to be pretty. Snow and rain will mix with models diverging on the total accumulation. Personally I’m not feeling great about the greens picking up good snow with this system- particularly the southern greens.
The northern greens may be spared any heavy rain as some dry air works in and combines with warmer Atlantic air. This would essentially result in a period of windy, warmish and misty weather but little rain for the northern greens.

The ADK is still a quesiton mark. I’d expect I-87 to be a dividing line. To the west we’re mainly dealing with snow above 1500/2000 feet. If this is the case we’ll see prob. 8-10 inches in the ‘dacks with some periods of rain mixed in at lower levels today.

So here’s the deal-o, or as Regina George’s mom would say, the 4-1-1.

As Patti decays she’ll migrate west-ish. This will work to turn a trough behind her into a banana shape. A system already working its way through the south will emerge off the NC coast by later today.
As this system taps warm gulf air it will deepen and move NW towards the NJ coast. Upon reaching the NJ coast a tongue of precip will surge into NJ, NY. The system will deepen off NYC and because of the shape of the trough, hook west into Conn/NYC suburbs and deepen very rapidly at the surface.

This will have several key effects:

First this will direct another bazooka of moisture at the Catskills later tomorrow afternoon. From late morning until the evening the Catskills will be under the gun for a period with snowfall rates easily reaching 2 inches an hour in the heavier bands. However, as the ground temps will be just near or above freezing, and 5000ft temps barely below, periods of mixed precip are possible and rain is possible below at least 1200ft.

Here we see the system starting to develop and shoot that moisture into NY/NJ

Here is’t starting to deepen and dig west around the trough:

Tightly wrapped up now, smoking the catskills, starting to pull in warm air around east side (see text below)

Second, the rapid deepening will produce strong winds and pull a significant chunk of warm air into the system. (See above where 0c isotherm is pushed west) This warm air, because of the odd position, will wrap around the NE side. Areas in NH, and VT will see temps rise with the intrusion of this warm air. 850mb temps will exceed 0c. At lower levels of the atm temps under this band will also be above freezing. Therefore anywhere EAST of the Hudson River/Champlain Valley is under a threat of rain during daylight hours on Thursday and Friday.

Third, as the system wraps up into a nasty little ball over South Eastern NY, the cold air and moisture will move in a counter-clockwise motion bringing heavy snow to bubble-ville PA and NY (ok…Binghamton NY) and then even further south/east. There may actually be a period of time on Friday early morning where it’s warmer in BTV than in Philly with snow falling in Philly and Rain in BTV.

Here it’s fully cut off by friday morning. Precip to the east north and nw is showery. Precip west is steady. To the south the possiblity exists for a deformation zone to set up bringing a bit of heavier precip.

Total QPF:

Higher elevations of catskills 10-18 inches with 24 possible if we stay all snow at the measuring stations.

VT, mix with periods of heavier snow tomorrow evening, periods of changeover, misting at times and then a tricky period of orographic precip along east facing slopes as we head into the weekend.