Light Snow on Monday then a Bigger Storm on Tap for Wednesday into Thursday

By:  Scott
December 6, 2009 1:13 pm | Category: Weather

Ahh, finally it looks like we have morphed into a weather pattern that resembles winter with a couple chances of snowfall over the next week. First though, I’d like to mention that Houston, TX (yes, Houston, on the Gulf Coast) received 1” of snowfall on Friday. This means that Houston now has more seasonal snowfall than Burlington, VT, which has recorded only a trace as of 12/5. I haven’t checked the stats religiously, but I’m going to bet that this is the first time in recorded history that Houston is beating BTV in snowfall. With that said, Burlington will pass Houston later this week in the snowfall department and the following will explain how.

The first system of interest is a very weak, strung-out shortwave that will ripple along in the mean west to east mid/upper level flow. While this system will be moisture starved, there are favorable mid/upper level dynamics. A strong H5 vort max will pass over the southern Adirondacks and central/southern Green Mtns; normally the heaviest QPF falls just north of the H5 vort max which means I’m targetting the northern Adirondacks and northern Greens for this minor event. Favorable upper jet dynamics (left front quad of the jet streak) across the northern areas will enhance upper level divergence. Underneath all of this, a weak surface low will track from the southern Great Lakes and then into northern NY before weak redevelopment occurs in the Gulf of Maine. I’m concerned about the lack of low level forcing and moisture, but feel that orographic lift in the Adirondacks and along the Green Mountain spine will over come those shortfalls.

Models are spitting out between .1-.25” of QPF across the northern Dacks and northern/central Greens in response to this shortwave passing through. This appears reasonable and model thicknesses indicate precipitation type will be easy…its all snow. Favorable snow growth temps (-12 to -16C) in the region of max lift will produce what I expect to be a fairly high ratio snow. By Tuesday morning I expect 2-4” across the northern Adirondacks (including Whiteface) and northern Greens (including Jay, Smuggs, Stowe, and Bolton) with 1-3” falling in the central Greens (including Sugarbush and MRG) and in the Whites (including Cannon, Wildcat, Loon, Waterville, etc).

The next event starts to take shape across the center of the nation on Tuesday Night as a strong shortwave is ejected out of the desert southwest. This shortwave trough will lift northeast on Wednesday from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes region, taking a surface low pressure system with it. This low pressure system will be the primary low and as it tracks into the southern Lakes region, a secondary low pressure system will develop somewhere along the eastern seaboard. The location of this secondary development and the track of this secondary will determine how much and what type of precipitation we will see here in the northeast.

This storm will be a warm air advection driven precipitation event and we’ve seen plenty like it over the past two seasons. Deep southwesterly flow will transport moist, humid air over the cold dome that will be present across the northeast and all areas from the Catskills north look to start as snow. Climatology in this set-up argues for a moderate amount of QPF in the form of snow and sleet causing 3-6 or 4-8” of accumulation before a change over to freezing rain and rain. Given recent model data, I’m leaning towards a widespread 3-6” of snow and sleet during the day on Wednesday before a change over to freezing rain and rain on Wednesday evening, then precipitation should taper off quickly as the mid-level dry slot moves in.

This storm will effect a wide geographical area with mixed precipitation so it will make forecasting the details tricky. Needless to say, just about everyone from the Poconos northward stands a chance at seeing at least some snow, followed by sleet and freezing rain, and finally just plain rain. Cold air will be anchored by a high pressure system just north of Maine and areas in central and northern New England may never break into the warm sector so I could see precipitation in those areas tapering off before temps rise towards freezing or just above. In general, the further north and/or east you are, the more snow/ice accumulations you can expect in this set-up. The details of this system will need to be hashed out over the next couple of days, but this system will be by far the largest event in the next 7 day period. Stay tuned.

Related Stuff:

  1. Snow Accumulations Expected Monday Night and Tuesday Across the Higher Elevations of the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites
  2. Weather Blather: Light Upper Elevation Snow possible
  3. (UPDATED) In through the backdoor…upper elevation snow possible monday
  4. Quick Burst of Snow possible in Southern VT, Catskills and ADK Monday into Tuesday (UPDATED 12/27)
  5. Update: Snow Monday Night into Tuesday Morning: Maps
  6. Magic Monday: Retrograding Storm and Broad Cyclonic Flow Brings Snows (Updated)

13 Comments

  1. Greg
    wrote on December 6th, 2009 at 4:08 pm  
    1

    Thanks for the update Scott. Is there any chance this clipper Monday night could really “blossom” in any special locations for Tuesday morning? Of course that sort of thing I wouldn’t hold any weather forecaster to… but if you were to put aside your forecaster hat, and completely speculate…. do you see any especially favoured areas that might make out like bandits from it?

    I recall about this time last December, Stowe got hit by a real sleeper of a clipper… made driving conditions nearly impossible through the evening. Then the next morning we woke to at least a foot of super light & dry coupled with bluebird… one can dream, right?

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  2. Scott
    wrote on December 6th, 2009 at 5:10 pm  
    2

    Yeah I don’t think that’s going to happen, haha, but if I were to guess… the spot that’ll pick up the most here will likely be Jay Peak but I still think its just a fluffy 4-5″ at the top of the Jay tram. In general, its a 1-3″/2-4″ snowfall for the mountains with a dusting-1″ in the valleys.

    I skied Chin Clip today after a couple runs on Stowe’s open terrain and let me tell you that last night’s fluff dusting made a big difference from Friday. Just having a little fluff on top of the bulletproof make for a much more enjoyable descent. I’d look for more of the same on Tuesday.

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
    • Greg
      wrote on December 6th, 2009 at 9:59 pm  
      3

      Thanks Scott! We’ll see what happens. At least we’re looking at some serious cold now! NWS has highs sub 10 by the weekend… woohoo!

  3. scharny
    wrote on December 7th, 2009 at 9:33 am  
    4

    Hey Scott:

    I was the bearded skier that talked with you around 9am as I was finishing my run on Chinclip. Keep up the good work – this website is a great resource for mandatory dawn patrollers for myself.

    Eric

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
    • Greg
      wrote on December 7th, 2009 at 9:42 am  
      5

      I can’t speak for Scott Scharny, but thanks for the compliment to the site in general! I’m glad you are able to use this site. Don’t hesitate to contact any of us if there is anything (weather related or otherwise) that you would find useful on here. We’re always looking to make this a better resource.

    • Scott
      wrote on December 7th, 2009 at 4:23 pm  
      6

      Cool! You were the only other person I saw over there all day and you were right, it was more than worth it. With another couple inches falling last night and today (and maybe another 1-2″ tonight) I’m guessing Chin Clip could be skiing real nicely tomorrow.

      Thanks for the compliments and make sure to send kudos towards Greg/Sam/Allen for setting all this up.

  4. AJ Kappe
    wrote on December 7th, 2009 at 4:35 pm  
    7

    Hey Scott et All, I’m heading up to our place in Stowe tonight and will be at the lot close to 6 to get some man powered turns in and hopefully one or 2 on sewots’ buck if i can still get back to town for work. Anyone care to join?? Will prob be going up gondolier.

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
    • AJ Kappe
      wrote on December 8th, 2009 at 12:05 pm  
      8

      Boot deep turns on nice and fluffy coming down Liftline and National, The few inches that fell before i left this morning were not enough to completely cover the nega-tread left by the cats on nosedive, but were plenty to make it a nice smooth skin up. Probably heading back for some more turns this afternoon if i can squeeze them in, Mountains getting hit hard

    • Greg
      wrote on December 8th, 2009 at 1:49 pm  
      9

      Thanks for the report AJ. sorry i didn’t get back to you on the invite this morning. Just saw it this morning… couldn’t have made it anyway.

      KC and I are heading up tonight to harvest the goods. If you have any additional reportage put it in here for all of us to enjoy. We’re either hitting Bolton or Stowe, although based on what the radar looks like, and you’re reporting it will probably be Stowe

    • AJ Kappe
      wrote on December 8th, 2009 at 5:46 pm  
      10

      Just got back from another couple turns. The open trails were hit hard by riders today and a lot was scraped off hardpack though manageable. I should point out that those boot deep turns were not without the occasional ding. Either way it was fluffy, deep, and it didn’t suck. The few trips I just took up the quad it appeared i was the only one who had hit it all day. So I had to give it another shot. Just as fluffy, Just as not sucking. Either we need another couple inchs tonight or I need to find a runout with better coverage from that trail. I don’t like putting my split through chatting over snowcat treads at the bottom of ND ;-). Thinking about heading up again tomorrow before work if anyone will be around. Undecided if it will be at dawn with the pups,. or at 8 with the masses on the quad line.

      On a side note I did not get to hit the Gondi side, I’m assuming there had to be a decent amount fall up top, Anyone know what thats looking like? Could go for sunrise on the Clipper tomorrow AM.

    • Scott
      wrote on December 8th, 2009 at 6:17 pm  
      11

      For tomorrow… watch out for wind hold but I think we can get a couple hours out of the Quad first thing as winds don’t really ramp up until mid/late morning. If you are coming in the afternoon, be prepared to ride the double or triple, haha.

      I heard from an off-duty patroller that the Clipper was near boot deep blower on top of a “firm” base. It sounded like it did not suck, haha.

      And ahhh, so that was your track on Liftline to National! From the lift I saw that one track left by a snowboarder and found myself drooling just a little bit. Still looked a little thin but ooh so nice at the same time. Oh and they plan on doing more track-packing of trails. It sucks now but trust me, it’ll be worth it in the long haul.

  5. AJ Kappe
    wrote on December 8th, 2009 at 7:25 pm  
    12

    Sunrise on clipper it is,. Scott what do you have to say about the depth’s we’ll see at SMR tomorrow morning. Seeing mixed reports but have heard 5-9″ in central / eastern green mountains. If they get anything tomorrow It’ll be worth the ride but, Do I need to call out of work is the real question, Don’t mind skinning mid day to get runs from the top if the lifts halt.

    On a side note, One thing i’ve never been able to find is wind direction. Is there any of these charts on the weather page, or any page for that matter that will give some kind of indication of wind direction? I’ve seen days a 20mph cross wind could stop the quad in its tracks, but a 35mph head wind and they’ll push right through it.

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  6. Scott
    wrote on December 8th, 2009 at 8:54 pm  
    13

    I’ll be honest, I haven’t looked at this storm as much as I would’ve liked
    in the past couple of days, but I think this storm turns out pretty good for
    base building stuff with some mixed precip to solidify the pack. Its going
    to be one heck of a thump tomorrow in the mountains because this is all
    gonna happen in 6 hours or less. It could be going 1-2″/hr for a time
    tomorrow. Then there’s the encore event that takes place Thursday and Friday.

    I’m getting excited to see what happens with that one because someone could
    get lit up. Synoptically it just looks nice with ripping H85 winds coming
    out of the Great Lakes region. A mix of Great Lakes moisture and leftover
    cyclonic moisture will get dragged across the mountains and produce low QPF,
    high ratio snowfall. Within a larger overall area of general snow showers,
    there will probably be a band of enhanced squalls ripping off Erie and
    Ontario. This pattern tends to favor central VT from Mt Ellen to Killington
    area in the strong west-east flow. Its a prime cross-barrier flow for that
    stretch of the Greens and with embedded lake moisture they could do
    particularly well, particularly Sugarbush/MRG area.

    For now… I leave you with the Mount Mansfield forecast. These are some of
    the highest winds I can remember the NWS forecast show for Mansfield. Winds
    of 75-90mph increasing to 85-100mph tomorrow… that along with heavy snow
    should prove interesting on the mountain. They are also hitting the snow
    showers again by Thursday afternoon.

    THE FORECAST FOR MOUNT MANSFIELD, VERMONT AT 4,393 FT:
    LAST UPDATED AT 414 PM EST TUE DEC 08 2009

    .TONIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT…THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. A
    CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER
    MIDNIGHT. LOW AROUND 14. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH…BECOMING SOUTH
    10 TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
    .WEDNESDAY…SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. SNOW IN THE MORNING…THEN
    FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
    IN THE MORNING. HIGH AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WINDS 75 TO 90 MPH…
    INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL VALUES AS
    LOW AS 1 BELOW.
    .WEDNESDAY NIGHT…SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. SLEET AND A CHANCE OF
    SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT…THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
    MIDNIGHT. LOW AROUND 16. SOUTH WINDS 45 TO 60 MPH…BECOMING WEST
    50 TO 55 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
    .THURSDAY…SUMMITS IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS IN THE MORNING…THEN SUMMITS
    BECOMING OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
    MORNING…THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AROUND 17.
    WEST WINDS 55 TO 60 MPH.

    -Scott

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
Please consider visiting our sponsors.

Leave a Reply to Greg

Click here to cancel reply.
(no login required)

Check for email notifications of new comments (valid email required)        


Next (newer) Post:
Random Post Previous (older) Post:
Home
Stay in touch: Click here to follow us on Twitter. Click here to subscribe for updates to be delivered via RSS. Click here to become a fan on Facebook. Click here to read and share real time weather observations. Learn more over at the account. It's awesome. We promise!