Summer Series for the Weekend of June 18-20

SYNOPSIS:

For the first time in a few weeks I can confidently say that there will be two consecutive nice days! As a we speak, a systems is slowly dragging a cool front and precip across the north country. Sat. imagery shows this pretty clearly as does the radar. South of Albany and east into Mass the front has cleared the area. Behind the system a High pressure system is moving in from the Ohio river valley, putting the flow from the NW. Thus bright sunny skies with warm temps and low humidity are the norm.
Turing the page to tomorrow and the weekend, the high will slide to the east over the next 18 hours. This sets up a return flow from the SE. Warming temps, increasing humidity and summer like back sweat will rule the roost from late Friday into Sat night. A weak front will push down from the NW on Sat. Some large storms could pop over extreme western NY and PA late Saturday but by the time the front enters our zones of concern the instability numbers should be pretty weak and nothing much looks to materialize.
By Sunday am, the front will be pushing out through NH/ME. Most will wake up to lingering broken clouds and a few showers (in the north country mainly). However at this time the showers look really weak and as the day goes on the sun and broken clouds, along with lower humidity and temps in the 70s should make Sunday another solid day.

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FRIDAY:
Friday is going to be a good day. Like really good. Like why are you working inside good.

Primary Concerns: Sunburn. Seriously…it’s going to be a clear day near the strongest period for sun in the NE. Many of you (looking you G…I’ve seen the pictures) don’t have a base built up. Put the sun block on and thank me later.

Also, the bug level might start to get into the “wear bug spray levels.” I’ve read mixed reports about Black Fly activity. So maybe some all natural Buzz Away would be a good choice. It’s Ms. Hutz approved and that means something. She has sensitive skin, and hates bugs in her “grill.” (True story- she once dislocated her shoulder swatting a bug. Of course an hour later we played a full 18. She’s a trooper) So if it passes her test I’m sure it will pass yours.

Best Location: Outside.

Best Activity: Not working in an office.

Recreational Forecast:

By early Friday morning, a departing system and associated cold front will have cleared the Northeast. In its wake, a strong high pressure system will move in from the Ohio river valley. HPC has a pretty good grasp on the placements that I agree with so look at it below.
Surface fronts

Since the center of high pressure will be to our SW for much of the day, the prevailing flow around the H will bring air from the NW. This will result in pretty low dewpoints.
Friday 2m dwpts

You can also clearly see the prevailing flow here:
Friday ridge building.

What you can also see is the building ridge across the NE which will become an important player on Saturday.

Importantly, skies will be very clear and the sun will shine. Friday clouds
In fact, the overly cautious SREF probability models aren’t even giving the North Country a 5% chance of moderate height clouds.
SREF CLOUD POP

That’s rare this time of year and awesome. The combination of clear skies and NW flow will keep temps in the very comfortable range. Temps between 72 and 78 should be pretty common.
Fri. temps
So get out there tomorrow if you can.

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SATURDAY:

After a gem (no, not that kind of jem or that kind) of a day on Friday, Saturday will not dissapoint. With a return flow around the High pressure, plentiful sun, and warm temps, Saturday will be another great day in the North Country- albeit a bit sweatier.

Primary Concern: There are two. First the heat will be little more noticeable and with dew points moving into the 60s it could get a bit sticky in the afternoon. Nothing extreme but worth taking into account. Maybe you want to get that 100 mile bike ride done in the morning.
Second, a weak front will push in from the west towards the late afternoon. Out in western NY and PA this should set off some legit t-storms. However, given the timing right now, I think once the front reaches the central portions of the state the instability will crash. Maybe by 10pm or so a few stray weak t-storms or showers will start to move across the Catskills but that’s it really.

Best Areas: Again…every. If you really want to beat the heat head north.

Best Activity: Can’t think of a bad one. So long as you stay hydrated you can pretty much do anything.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

By Saturday morning, the high pressure center will have drifted east enough to turn the prevailing flow to a SW orientation.
Sat. Fronts

This “return” flow will act to push warmer and humid air in to the region.

Dew points will accordingly rise in response. By the afternoon, PA, western NY, NJ and parts of SE NY will feel a little sticky.
Sat. aft. dwpts

At the same time, the skies will remain overwhelmingly clear.
Sat. Clouds.
Only by later in the afternoon does the chance for clouds begin to increase. And even then they remain in the very low probability realm.
Sat. cloud POP

The sun and return flow should push temps into the lower 80s across much of the region.
Sat. afternoon temps
Notably, in the BTV and a few other valleys, there could be isolated pockets of upper 80s. That can feel pretty hot if the sun is beating down on you. So take a break, bring a hat and drink some water.

Now, as we enter the afternoon, a weak front will move in from the west associated with a robust upper level disturbance moving NNE through the Canadian great lakes.
Sat. Vort

Looking at the instability numbers ahead of this front Sat. afternoon point to some thunderstorms across the far western part of the region. CAPE: CAPE > 1k

Lifted Index:

However, what you should notice is the sharp cutoff as you move to the east. Simply put the instability isn't there once you reach the catskills to support much T-storm growth. Plus right now the timing doesn't help. By the time the front reaches the catskills and ADK the primary heating of the day will be over and the upward motion from the surface heating will be on the decrease. This should kill our chances for an evening boomer. However, sometimes you got an outlier so just keep an ear to the sky.

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SUNDAY:

Sunday, while not as awesome as Friday and Saturday will nevertheless be pretty nice. The cold front from Saturday should have pushed clear of most of the area by the morning. Behind the front, the NW flow will result in cool temps, low humidity and refreshing conditions.

Primary Concern: Lingering clouds and a weak shower in the north country. Afternoon T-storms in a narrow band from NYC through Conn, Mass and So. NH.

Best Areas: NY, VT, NW NH.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

By Sunday am the front will have pushed east into eastern Mass, Conn. and NH.
Sun. Fronts

Again, the resulting NW flow will bring dew points down quite a bit.
Sun. dwpts

With cooler temps that only reach into the low to mid 70s.
Sun. temps

Sunday should feel very comfortable.
Cloud cover should be fairly broken throughout the day. The heaviest will be in the morning however.
Sun. Am clouds
Given the cloud cover and some pockets of upward motion + the propensity of the Greens and ADK to surprise us with post frontal showers I’d keep a watch out for a stray sprinkle on sunday – esp. in the morning.

One other note- The front will raise the chance for T-storms in a narrow band. The SREF’s have some elevated CAPE values in this band:
SUN. CAPE
Now this isn’t that significant right now but it’s something to watch as we head through the period.

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