Due to a technical malfunction with the weather command center (who knew watching that donkey show would have any negative consequences?) I’m somewhat limited in my ability to convey visuals. Nevertheless, I’m going to push on.
So, it’s been cold. Don’t say you weren’t warned. But like all things, this cold will break. After the weekend however. First, this weekend we’ll see one last arctic high pressure move through the region. It will bring generally dry and cold conditions to the N/E mtns. A storm complex with skirt to the south through PA and southern New England today through tomorrow. Likely this is too far south to affect ski terrain.
A weak shortwave and cold front will ripple through Saturday afternoon. Moisture is limited for this #littlewaveofjoy but with temps in the single digits even .25 inches of water can make a decent little pow. So be on the lookout for a 1-4 inches of new snow Saturday afternoon thru early Sunday am.
On Monday, things start to change. The high pressure will slide off the coast. The flow of air around the high will move air from the southwest into the region warming us up significantly. Daytime highs Monday thru Wednesday will be into the 30s. At the same time a low pressure center will track to our northwest. The weak low will bring a mixed precip event to the region (typical snow-sleet-rain-snow event).
While models have been trending favorably for this event and recent runs have made it cooler (tracking the low over us instead of far to the n/w) and weaker (results in less warm air advection) there is little chance we avoid at least some rain early next week.
Following that things get interesting. I tweeted a few days ago about how favorable the end of the month looked for active snowy weather. Well it still looks good. Most major models show a number of major snow chances from 1/31 onward. My concern with this period has also not changed: we go back into the freezer and all the “weather” is shunted to our south and east. There is support for both solutions but for now, stay positive.
For my UT friends, it looks like your inversion hell will be briefly breaking this weekend. A trough will swing out of the N/W and scour out the stale inversion and bring substantial precip to the mountains. Prob something like 10-20 is reasonable. Sadly it doesn’t look that active in that events wake, as another ridge builds in.
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