Eariler this morning I wrote the following on Facebook:
Over the next week the N/E is going to have two shots at seeing some flakes. The first chance will come Sunday night into monday morning. A trough swinging down and through the great lakes out of Canada will push east over our area saturday night, with rain clearing the area sunday morning. In the wake of that front, cool air will build in. h85 temps on the GFS have remained steady at -1 to -3
C. Therefore, any embedded low level moisture on the N/W flow will produce upslope precip in the form of light flakes. The air mass is not too wet so we’re only talking about flakes in the air or at best a coating above 3000 feet. Notably the NAM holds the core of the cold air back to the west and blunts its progression across the north country on sunday. Looks a bit odd to me, so I’m going with the GFS.
The next threat comes wednesday night into thursday. A lobe of cold air will sink down behind a cold front pushing south out of canada. The 0z gfs today is much warmer than previous runs which had cold air at h85 all the way down through the catskills. REgardless, I like these two shots right now and think the are worthy of my close attention.
Well let me expound on that for a moment.
Yep..that’s a “.gif.” (hopefully it works). Were trying something new! Just like Costanza ” Anyway you can see the cold air filtering in on the northwest flow around the large high pressure moving into the great lakes. That, combined with the northerly flow around the week low off to the east will certainly usher in plenty of cool air into the N/E.
The question will be how much moisture lingers. That cold air is going to be pretty dry, but looking at the progged 850 rh values there is evidence of SOME moisture lingering at the mid levels of the hills and on up to the summits:
While I’d like to see more moisture, with the northwest flow, evaporative cooling from the orographic uplift and the cool air in place, I’d be willing to bet the summits down to about 3000 feet see at least some flakes flying around sunday night into monday am- maybe even enough to dust some cold rocks up high.
As you can see the model wants to keep a weak closed wave of low pressure along the font which would spin a little extra moisture down into the N/E. Also the temps look a notch colder. The RH values for the surface to the boundary layer look better (right there after 00z on the 27):
So it certainly appears possible that a high elevation fast grass schuss is possible Thursday morning.
Anyway…just wanted to put this out there and get people stoked up for winter! While this cold weather doesn’t look to last long, it’s nice to see it and we should appreciate what we are given.
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