So nothing against the FIS crew…but I hate you. Not “hate” in the mean way, more like “hate” in the “I’d prob. laugh if you banged your shin” kinda way. But it’s cool. I’m not bitter. I’ll just over-bill you when you hire me as your agent. K?
With my rantings out of the way lets look ahead to the weather this week. At this point there are three elements to the week:
1. Early to Mid-Week normalcy
2. Late Week Storm
3. Weekend Cold Blast
1. Start of the week
The ridge of high pressure that settled over the N/E will ease off the coast as a weak low tracks across the NY/VT/Can. border. Ahead of the low, temps will rise into the mid 40’s tomorrow in the valleys with lower to mid 30s at mid mountain. Light Rain and or Snow will fall as the associated cold front drags across the north county. There is some potential that we’ll see some lake influenced precip follow in the wake of the front Tuesday night. Though recent model runs have backed off on this.
Regardless, after the front clears, temps will fall to more seasonable levels for Wednesday and Thursday. Temps (on mountain) should be mid ’30s for highs with 20’s at night.
2. Late Week Storm.
Another week, another forecasting nightmare on our hands. Recent model runs have been consistent in depicting a gulf of mexico low pressure system “making the turn” and heading up the eastern seaboard.
During the weekend the storm was predicted to take a path which would bring snow to the central/southern VT and the catskills. Now it’s predicted to cut up into western PA and NY. This path brings rain, some of it heavy to the ski areas Thursday and Thursday night. However, there are model variances on this so its too soon to make a call.
3. Cold Blast:
After the storm clears, a strong blast of cold air looks to arrive. While there is variability in just how cold it looks to get, I feel confident in saying that by late Friday night, some real cold air and not just “cool” air will be working its way into the north country. Even if the bulk of the cold air settles into the upper plains (as some models indicate) the N/E mountains could still be looking at single digit lows in the evenings. If the bulk of the cold settles into the N/E (as is also forecasted) it could get a fair amount colder at night if the winds relax. Sadly though the model trend has been to back away from “locking” this cold air in. (Though the 00z and 06z GFS runs do have the cold sticking around for the start of next week).
Also, in the wake of the storm, along with the cold blast, we could see the first real lake effect event of the season. With warm lake temps and real arctic flow this would be significant event. However, the strength of the winds are a concern. While LES banding is possible in high winds, the bands aren’t as organized. Based on the direction of the winds over the lakes, I caution to say that the high peaks could get into the LES. Normally winds are W/NW. However, there are some indications that the winds would have a more SW component. Historically, when there is an SW component to the winds over Erie and Ontario the High Peaks get into the snow more than forecasted. (December 2005 saw this set up). Again however, model trends are starting to move away from favoring the LES.
Update: I’m starting think we’ll see something brewing sunday/monday timeframe. As the upper level trough digs in behind the departing storm, a weak mid level low pressure system could spin up at the base/axis of the trough and swing up along the coast. Looks like it would be a catskill/southern VT/NH type storm if anything. I’ll keep you posted.
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