As Scott has pretty much covered the Midweek system as I would I’m not going to add very much. I just want to comment on the latest trends with the system and then talk about what’s on tap for the weekend.
First the latest trends in the Midweek Storm:
The latest model run shows lower level temps (2m and h85) staying below freezing for much of the event. However, upper atmosphere temps will push JUST over the freezing mark and that’s not great. Personally I could see places like the high peaks and northern greens staying away from the rain but getting a solid dose of Not Snow. Originally my concerns with this system was heavy icing. I don’t see that being a huge problem right now. But be sure some areas could get nicked with a nasty little bout of freezing rain.
Here is the freezing level by 7pm wed. night:
Here is the total precip by wed night:
Based on what’s scott’s laid out (which I agree with) I’d say we’re looking at 4-7 inches of snow on the front end of this system for the higher terrain before either a dry slot works in between the dying midwest L and the developing coastal low, or enough warm air works in to shut off accumulations (by bringing ZR or rain).
In the wake of this system the lakes look to go off. Plain and simple. Somebody is going to get a big dump. As the system departs it will pull a strong arctic cold front across the great lakes. Winds will remain generally steady for almost 48 hours. With lake temps running well above normal and ample cape values predicted I can see the precip down wind of the lakes being legit. Additionally, with solid RH values all acorss the north country I could see even the ‘dacks and greens tapping into some of this mositure. Also as the flow turns a little more NW by saturday, the north western catskills- plattekill for example- could begin to see snow off the lakes. For those that know, plattekill’s orientation does a great job sucking any moisture out of the atmosphere and when there is a downwind flow off the lakes, a predicted snow flurry can easily turn into 2-4 inches of softness.
I’m not really going to go into totals right now because it is far too soon for that. However I will state that after wed. storm we need to carefully watch the radar and winds to see where these bands develop. Anywhere from the catskills north and west to the spine of the greens could pick up a few unexpected inches from this set up.
Latest thoughts on midweek storm:
As scott and I talked about yesterday, the NWS has said that 3-5 total accums possible in the valleys with 4-8 possible across the higher terrain with the snow coming at the front end before warm air works into the midlevels of the atmosphere and changes the precip over to sleet, freezing rain and rain.
Looking at the minute details a few key points.
1. Upslope snow will not fall in normal upslope areas. We’re looking at precip coming in from the w/sw and with strong winds from that direction I’d look towards sw facing slopes of the adk for the best accum.
The total precip map by the high res WRF supports this:
Now the real question is how much of this will fall as frozen stuff?
As you can see, the warm air and downsloping winds will warm the entire area with just the adk and northern greens staying below freezing:
By wed night a mid level dryslot will move in at just about the same time that the h85 temps cross the 0c line in the adk and northern greens. This should save these areas from changing over to all rain. However this isn’t a bet i’d want put the house on. There is def. the possibility with 850mb temps just at freezing and temps above that above freezing the mountains will get some cold rain wed. afternoon.
Notably, it seems that the adk will cool down before the greens as in the wake of the dry (and warm) slot.
In the wake of the system it still looks good from some real Lake Effect
Total precip. predictions by thursday morning clearly show bands setting up right into the tug hill and southern ADK.
-Also- upon request- Tremblant 6-10 inches
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