The Ides of March… Whatever that Means

By:  Lionel Hutz
March 15, 2011 10:13 am | Category: Weather

So the way I see it, the start of the NCAA tourney and the  move to daylight saving time is the start of spring.  While that doesn’t mean we will not get some great powder from now until the end of the ski season, it does signal a change.  Greater sun angle, more hours of daylight and a retreat northward of the polar jet all mean warmer temps, messier storms and less powder.  Of course, it also means stable snowpacks, sunny warm days out in the mountains and best of all: CORN!!  All awesome in their own right.  In fact, I’m of the personal belief that a good spring day of stable corn skiing can rival even the best of powder days.  (Well- maybe not these powder days…but many of the rest of them).

Spring also marks a change in my weather forecasting.  Tracking storms and storm threats day in day out is tiring. From Mid-October I’ve been watching every model run, every day, at multiple resolutions.  Starting at 5:00 I’d be on the computer tracking the developments. Where’s the jet stream? Where’s that upper level energy? How cold did it get last night? What’s the RH at surface levels? Winds? Upstream temp soundings?  All of it just to make sure I didn’t lead you astray.  Its not that I wanted to be right, it’s that I wanted to be valuable and trusted.  The fact that hundreds of you check in EVERY time there is a storm blows my mind.  Just a few years ago, all of this was just a bunch of emails fired off to CouldBeBuggy. Now it’s our thing- you (the readers) and me.  It’s awesome.  And as winter winds down I deeply deeply thank you for your readership and support.  I hope you all enjoyed the snows I tried to place you in and had a safe and happy season.  Now, as I said, winter weather forecasting is tiring. I need a break sometimes. But I get that great skiing is still to be had. So what do to?

Well here’s what I’m going to do.  First I’m going to keep tweeting out the “Lionelhutz Daily Weather Update” which you can get if you follow me on twitter.  That will, in 140 characters, cover the basic needs for the day. Temps, winds, precip.  Second, I’ll update here twice a week. Once early in the week and once before the weekend quickly outlining the basic expected weather conditions.  Third, if there is a big storm in the works, I’ll go full bore. Like a moth to flame, I can’t resist cyclogensis and orographic snows.  So that’s that. 

Now- let’s look at the wx for the next few days.

Today, tuesday will be a great day. Temps in the 30s with light winds and plenty of sun means get out there.  Clouds increase overnight with snows building in as an area of low pressure moves n/e thru NYC.  Upper elevations stay snow wednesday as lower elevations mix with some rain.  Amounts light to the north with a strip of heavier 6-7 inches across the highest terrain of the catskills and So. VT on into the whites.  Weather turns sunny and warmer on Thrusday with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.  Friday will see another round of elevation dependent light mixed precip.

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  1. Harvey44
    wrote on March 15th, 2011 at 11:19 am  

    I definitely recommend following Mr. Hutz on Twitter. It’s great to get the update when you are on the go. Thanks LH for all the hard work. It’s not easy to find good in-depth weather analysis that is focused on the higher elevations.

  2. TheRave
    wrote on March 15th, 2011 at 12:18 pm  

    Great update, thanks a lot. Kind of a mirror-image of switching from daily local forecasts to more general forecasts in late fall. It probably doesn’t bear saying, but weekend updates are super helpful. And don’t forget the Whites, especially the Presi’s. We’re psyched about all the creamed corn the MtW will be dishing up!

  3. webfoot
    wrote on March 15th, 2011 at 1:00 pm  

    My boys lugged up their ‘puter whenever we head north to get the skinny from you. Really appreciate it! Thank you for all your work, can’t emphasize (or spell) that enough. Enjoy the corn now, I know I will (
    (yea ha!)

    • Greg
      wrote on March 15th, 2011 at 2:37 pm  

      :D great post

  4. Sea Cay
    wrote on March 15th, 2011 at 4:24 pm  

    Thanks for the great forecasts all season. Forget the Weather Channel or local news or any of that hooey. When I want to know what’s gonna happen, I look to Mr. Hutz. Most reliable, most accurate, most detailed forecasts around.
    Did I mention how much I like these forecasts?

  5. noreaster
    wrote on March 15th, 2011 at 6:07 pm  


    /thanks for all the forecasting

  6. Evan
    wrote on March 15th, 2011 at 7:15 pm  
  7. Neufox47
    wrote on March 15th, 2011 at 11:51 pm  

    Your forecasts made my winter and ski season substantially better. I owe you lots of beers and gratitude. Good luck with the trial.

  8. WhiteWoodchuck
    wrote on March 16th, 2011 at 8:29 am  

    LH – Thanks for your diligent forecasting efforts for us across the season, your reports have been great and much appreciated. Enjoy the season of the corn!

  9. Ski Bunkerhill
    wrote on March 16th, 2011 at 2:32 pm  

    Love the reports and check them religiously. Really appreciate all the hard work you put in LH.

  10. WildcatBC
    wrote on March 16th, 2011 at 5:01 pm  

    Thanks a lot Lionel! Made the ski season that much more enjoyable always knowing where ullr was going to bless us the most.

  11. Chrisg
    wrote on March 16th, 2011 at 6:59 pm  

    My goto snow forecast report. Keep up the great work!

  12. powhounddd
    wrote on March 16th, 2011 at 7:58 pm  

    Thanks for the ongoing wx outputs. Very very appreciated.

    I have had a happy and safe season! =) “THIS year, turns in June” is my March mantra and stable spring snowpacks are my friend. See you outdoors.

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