Over the next Starting later tonight and continuing over the next four days (wait let me check..thurs, friday, sat, sun…good ok 4) a prolonged orographic lifting based snowfall is set to affect the North Country with the most focused precip falling along the northern Adk and Central to Northern Green Mountains
Looks like we have another round of light upslope possible today into tomorrow morning. Best dynamics should remain over the green spine and high peaks. 2-4 inches possible.
A quick peak of the morning radar and data reveals what looks like some nice upslope snow. I’d go with 2-4 today along the western slopes of the greens with 2-3 along the western slopes of the ‘dacks.
– afternoon thoughts: Not in love with how this is coming together. A review of the webcams up and down the spine doesn’t really show what I’d like to see. Might have to bump totals down to the 3-4 inch range if I don’t see some changes by the evening. Just don’t “feel” this either. But that can change.
The first round of upslope – say the next 24 hours- looks target to mainly Central and So. VT.
Now whether that hole over the norhern ADK and greens is really just some crappy model feedback problems or a real issue doesn’t change the fact that central vt south looks best over the next 24 hrs.
From Friday afternoon on, I’d suspect the ADK and No. VT to get more into the aciton. The local WRF picks up this shift well and shows some deeper pockets over the northern greens.
So to recap- starts south, moves north. Totals will vary greatly but 4-8 seems reasonable.
Currently, a surface low is sitting right over Halifax (not at anybody in Canada has noticed, what with the Canadian Men’s Hockey team squeaking out that 8-0 nail-biter). This surface low is, for all intents and purposes, not going to go anywhere for the next 96 hours. This will allow the low to flatten out and become stable and vertically stacked. This is a key ingredient for upslope events. Stationary lows/broad troughs create favorable conditions as they keep winds steady from the W/NW at all levels of the atmosphere. When placed right they also draw in moist air (the other key ingredient).
Here we have a very good set up though I’d like to see the center of the low a little further west. Regardless beginning sometime wed night light snow showers should begin along the western and northern slopes of both the ‘dacks and the greens.
The intensity of these snow showers is the real question. Based on model soundings and data there is good support for at least periods of heavier showers as deep moisture in the air combines with lifting and a few weak upper air disturbances over the area.
However the models are having a hard time honing on the amts of precip.
Over the next 48 hours there seems to be a general consensus that 4-7 inches are possible along the green spine and localized sections of the ADK with the heaviest precip falling towards the end of the period. There are some notable differences
The High RES NMM model shows the heaviest precip occurring from Kmart south in VT with heavy pockets in southern VT and along the western ADK slopes with a lollipop over the high peaks. This meshes with the current wind vectors pretty well.
The High RES NOAA run WRF model keeps the heavier precip along the northern spine of the greens and is a little drier.
The local WRF run by BTV agrees with the NOAA WRF but is a little wetter.
To be safe I’d say look for a general 4-7 inches by friday across the green spine with a little less in the ADK ski areas but with a good dose along the western BC slopes.
As we move into the weekend the overall pattern remains the same so expect continued snow showers. The target zone at that time will depend on the placement of the stacked low in canada.
Also be aware that this pattern will have breaks. Some sun will poke through at times. Don’t take this to mean all is lost. This is just an unstable pattern and that happens in unstable patterns.
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