Looks like the event unfolded pretty much as I expected- though HIGHLY variable- with the Bush came out as the winner. Reported totals up and down the spine are as follows:
Jay Peak: 19” (EDIT: As of 1 PM Jay has revised this number to report 12 inches in the past 48 hrs)
Smuggler’s Notch: 6”
Bolton Valley: 5”
Mad River Glen: 4”
Over in the ADK- Whiteface had 48 hr totals in the 7 inch range with 9 in 72 hours.
Now it’s a little odd that MRG – right next door only picked up 4 in 48 hrs. Might be some under-reporting going on there as I had reliable reports of deeper snow near the top of the mountain yesterday. And then of course there is that Jay Peak number. Now look….maybe the did get 1.5 feet of snow but if that’s the case I’d be really really surprised. I watched this event ALL day yesterday as I was incredibly bored at work and not for 1 second did see atmospheric conditions conducive to 19 inches of snow in Northern VT. So I have to admit I’m skeptical of this report. I’d love to see some snow reporting system like Snowbird’s implemented at Jay Peak as their reported snow totals tend to vary greatly from others up and down the spine. I think this would greatly clarify snow totals and actually significantly advance the study of the Northern VT micro-climate.
Been a little busy at real work so sorry to catch you 1/2 of the way through this event. But hey, work happens and unless you all start paying for this blather, then I gotta do something to keep the lights on and the Ms. fed.
Anyway, beginning yesterday a trough with embedded disturbances moved into the northeast. I mentioned this on TGR yesterday. I wrote:
“A weak wave moving from west to east will pick up some moisture as it heads into the central greens and white mountains. Total snowfall by 0z thursday (i.e. wednesday night) will be in the 6 range across the central greens and the 6-8 range in the whites. Catskills, and ADK will pick up a few inches as well but the dynamics best align along the lower green spine and white mountains.”
Now, looking at the data, it seems that we should up these totals. The trough hasn’t moved out yet and the flow pattern and embedded disturbances will continue through at least the next 24 hours. Looking at the WRF model run out of btv we see a widespread .25 to .4 inches of liquid along the spine of the green mountains (I’ve highlighted it for you):
Driven by orographic uplift this amount makes sense and is well within reach. Further to the east, it seems the Whites will do a little better. WRF shows .75 inches of precip there. With decent snow ratios and good dendritic growth I’d say the greens should add another 3-5 inches today. A few select regions, where we see some micro climates create surface convergence and enhance the uplift could get into the 6 range. Best places look to be MRG/Bush region on south to Kmart. The whites look to add another 4-6. You might say wow- that’s seems odd- why are the totals so close– well it’s because I think the WRF undercuts the totals in the Greens when snow is driven by orographics, and overstates the totals in the whites as it doesn’t account for the shadowing of the greens. So there…maybe I’m wrong but WTF that’s not the first time!
Notably…down in southern vt, down around Magic, another bloom of moderate precip will be found. 3-5 sounds about right for the upper tops of the hills down there.
So there you go. Two day totals for this event should be in the 10 inch range across the Spine and while not enough to get to full capacity- certainly enough to bring back a winter feel.
Also wanted to throw a note in here…Lake streamers have been doing yeomans work in the catskills all day yesterday and today. Belleayre and the western cats prob. picked up 8 inches already (4:00 pm Wed.) with a few more light inches to go before we get into the weekend.
Now many of you have asked about this “clipper storm” that could develop friday into sunday. Well I guess it’s a reasonable time to address it.
As it looks right now a weak shortwave will move southeast out of the Canadian great lakes bringing widespread light snow to the Northeast on friday. As the wave hits the coast and interacts with a quasi stationary front, it will deepen. A few days ago the Euro model and to a lesser extent the GFS blew this up into a beast that tracked up the coast. I never believed that solution. Now it appears that as the storm deepens it will develop some inverted trough/NORLUN trough to the west. This strip of heavier snows will likely impact southern NY state through So. VT and Mass. Totals in the “strip” would run in the 6-9 range with overall totals in the 2-4 range for the rest of the mountains.
Having been asked to be a bit more specific I would say right now the Catskills are looking at the most snow from this system as it is being modeled.
Now…here’s the interesting part for me. As the storm moves away some models have it curving back through Northern Maine. This made me sit up in my chair because we’ve seen this happen several times already this year so climo supports it. Perhaps it need not be said but were this to happen…this is the result. I don’t really want to go into the dynamics now of how much upward motion, or relative humidity should exist at this time because I think it’s a little soon. Lets just say that right now I’m a lot more excited for the upslope potential from the afternoon of the 8th through the 9th than I am about the synoptic snows delivered by the clipper.
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