On thursday a moderatly strong low pressure system will skirt along to our north. As it does, it will push the ADK and VT into the warm sector, bringing some snows along at the front end from WAA/isentropic lifting. Once the warm front passes early thursday AM, the precip will remain as light rain. Later in the day, as the system moves out, a cold front will pass.
As it does it will turn winds from a southerly direction (bad) to a southwest/west and eventually NW direction. (good).
Here we are going through the morning from 6z to 9z to 12z.
Now what does that mean? Well it means we’ll see a cross barrier flow into the spine of the Greens with some low level lake enhanced moisture. (also good).
So looking at the specifics here we see that early friday morning- 6z through 14z (or about 1am to 9am) the factors look to be in play for an upslope snowfall along the Green spine.
The only conern is the moderate temps. We’re just not going to get the best uplift and mositure in the prime snow-growth region. Ideally I’d like to see the max upward motion occur in a region of 85% RH or greater with temps between -10 and -15C. We’ll be warmer than that:
Now this doesn’t mean we will not get snow, it just means it will be a wetter and denser snow. Given the need for some base, that might not be a bad thing. All in all I’m looking forward to the first “magic” snow of the season. I’m reserving my totals estimate until the higher RES-WRF model comes into line with the event tonight.
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